La Jornada: Mexico raised capital for 1,509 million dollars between January and July 2026

Between January and July 2026, $1,509.6 million entered Mexico’s government debt market, according to figures from the Institute of International Finance (IIF); However, in terms of last July alone, an outflow of $332 million was recorded.

These data, seen in a comparison with what was recorded last year, imply that for July alone, the capital outflow in the debt market was less than the 464 million registered in the same month of 2025, and also show a different trend from what was reported by the IIF in the first seven months of last year, when the capital outflow reached 3,228.8 million dollars.

Among the countries for which the IIF has updated figures as of July, Mexico was the third in which the most exits from the debt market were recorded, only behind China, where investments were reduced by 3,423 million dollars. Malaysia followed, from which 1,375 million dollars came out.

To a lesser extent, Thailand saw a reduction of $268 million in its debt investments, while in South Africa this decline reached $70 million. The IIF data corresponds only to the debt market, without taking into account the weight of variable income, that is, investments in shares.

However, in net terms and including movements in equities, the IIF highlighted that “non-resident portfolio flows to emerging markets returned to positive territory in July,” with total inflows of $18.8 billion having been recorded.

This comes after in June, the net outflow reached 18 billion dollars, given the movements recorded in the stock market.

“Looking ahead, factors such as a more restrictive Federal Reserve under (Kevin) Warsh, a coordinated intervention in the yen together with the US Treasury and a new spike in geopolitical tensions cast a shadow over the outlook for carry trade which has driven the reactivation of debt investment,” the IIF warned.

He explained that these investments towards emerging markets, such as those mentioned above, have three risks: first, that interest rates at the Federal Reserve will rise; second, “that the recent intervention on the yen, carried out in coordination with the United States Treasury, introduces a new source of uncertainty for the operations of carry financed in said currency.” And third, an increase in geopolitical tensions, which could hit the price of energy.