La Jornada: Business confidence accumulates 28 months of deterioration

Business confidence in Mexico experienced 28 months of contraction at an annual rate in August, due to persistent pessimism about the country’s economic situation, data from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) show.

The Global Indicator of Business Confidence Opinion (IGOEC) stood at 48.2 points in August, and did not present changes compared to July. However, compared to August 2025, it fell by 1.1 points.

This indicator, which measures the “mood” of businesspeople and is used as a variable to track production and investment decisions in the short and medium term, has been deteriorating since May 2024.

With seasonally adjusted figures, the IGOEC, which is the weighted average of the indicators of the four sectors that comprise it (manufacturing, construction, commerce and non-financial private services), continued in the contraction zone, since for 18 readings in a row it has been below 50 points (a threshold used to separate pessimistic perspectives from optimistic ones).

The average deterioration in August is due to the negative outlook perceived by the business community, mainly in the manufacturing, commerce and non-financial services sectors, which presented annual declines (only construction advanced in August). Meanwhile, in the comparison of one month against the previous one, manufacturing, construction and services showed progress, but commerce did not.

“Business caution reflects an environment of high uncertainty, particularly around the T-MEC, which entered a phase of annual reviews, which limits long-term investment decisions and the dynamism of some productive sectors. Although the external sector has consolidated itself as a pillar of growth, business caution suggests that the recovery of economic activity will continue to be gradual and heterogeneous between sectors during the second half of the year,” said Rosa Rubio, economic analyst at Monex.

Manufacturing orders

The manufacturing orders indicator (WPI) showed a significant recovery in August, moving further into the expansion zone, Inegi figures revealed.

The IPM, which measures the expectations and perception of business managers about the behavior of the manufacturing sector in Mexico, showed a monthly advance of 2.1 points and stood at 52.2 units in August, after having fallen 0.2 points in July.

With seasonally adjusted figures, the manufacturing orders indicator accelerated its advance during the eighth month, to 3.1 points, after a previous annual stagnation and after presenting negative annual variations from February to June.

The components referring to expected orders, expected production, employed personnel and the timeliness of the delivery of inputs by suppliers reported monthly increases in August. On the other hand, that corresponding to input inventories fell.