Russia’s game is starting to bear fruit: AfD has already started to erode support for Ukraine, and now the chancellor’s face is in danger

The far-right party AfD, which achieved a historic victory in the German state of Saxony-Anhalt a couple of weeks ago, is trying to repeat the same thing tomorrow, Sunday, in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. The party has increased its support in both states, but is not quite as popular in them as in Saxony-Anhalt.

Scholars of international politics Donatienne Ruy and Emma Buelte estimated in the analysis written for the research institute CSIS, that in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, the support of the AfD is already at 36 percent before Sunday’s elections, and the trend is the same at the level of Germany as a whole.

“Although the AfD is just one of many far-right parties born in Europe in the 2010s, its rise is being watched with particular concern in Europe. This is because the party is even more ‘extreme’ than other European far-right parties and it is growing its support in the most influential country in the European Union – the same country that brought National Socialism to Europe less than a century ago,” the researchers commented.

Ruy and Buelte predict that if the AfD now wins the elections in two other states in addition to Saxony-Anhalt, it can no longer be ignored in national politics.

The Ukraine demand is already true

German waves According to the AfD, the Chancellor already demanded this week Friedrich Merzin the government to change its Ukraine and Russia policy. However, Merz has assured that the government is not going to give up supporting Ukraine.

AfD’s pro-Russia attitude or the party’s stance on the war in Ukraine is not a new thing. However, the party has expressed its position even more strongly after winning the state election in Saxony-Anhalt.

Political scientist at Friedrich Schiller University Sven Leunig estimates that the events in Leipzig in particular made many Germans afraid, and therefore more and more are ready to stop supporting Ukraine.

“It is not so much a principled rejection of supporting Ukraine, but rather a reaction based on fear. More and more Germans want to stay out of the conflict, so as not to be forced into it more deeply. This of course strengthens parties such as AfD, BSW and the left-wing party Die Linke, which take these feelings into account,” he commented.

Leunig refers to TV channel ARD’s Deutschlandtrend polls, according to which 42 percent of Germans consider that military support has already gone too far.

“Furthermore, the threat from Russia is widely known. If the citizens’ support weakens in the long term, the government must react to it,” he says.

In the eyes of the Germans, the problem is not necessarily supporting Ukraine per se, but rather how the support is financed.

Head of the think tank OMFIF David Marsh and advisor Andreas Meyer-Schwickerath remind in their joint analysis, like Leunig, that the AfD is not the only pro-Russian party in Germany. BSW, or Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht, described as extreme left, comes to the fore, but also the left-wing party Die Linke.

All three are estimated to also benefit from Russia’s quite active election influence, for example on social media. AfD is also supported by the president of the United States Donald Trump.

Friedrich Merz’s future at stake

All this already affects Friedrich Merz’s position as chancellor. However, Marsh and Meyer-Schwickerath estimate that unless Merz’s party, the Christian Democratic CDU, experiences worse than expected setbacks in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Berlin, the chancellor’s resignation seems unlikely at this point.

“However, the latest opinion polls and numerous signs of a sharp decline in his authority mean a constant flow of bad news. If the situation turns against Merz​​ even more, Germany and Europe are in for a tough autumn, which may bring with it new government changes,” Marsh and Meyer-Schwickerath write.

They remind that Merz built his chancellorship on the promise of halving the AfD’s support. This strategy has failed.

In Saxony-Anhalt, the AfD doubled its support, while the CDU’s own result halved.

The CDU will meet to consider the position of Friedrich Merz on Sunday evening, i.e. at the same time as the votes are counted in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. In the inner circle of the party, this week there has already been open talk about changing the chancellor.

“Catastrophic blow”

Possible replacements for Merz are, according to German sources, the prime minister of North Rhine-Westphalia Hendrik Wüst and Bavarian leader of the CDU’s sister party, the CSU Markus Söder.

Meyer-Schwickerath and Marsh also remind us of Russia’s role. They say bluntly that ending Merz’s term as chancellor right now would be a “catastrophic blow” to the West’s efforts to support Ukraine in its war against Russia.

If the chancellor really changes, it would be the second time since Olaf Scholzin the government fell in November 2024. This is very exceptional and not least because Germany, the largest EU country, has been described as the basis of the stability of the entire Union.

Researchers from the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), which focuses on foreign policy research Janka Oertel and Jana Puglieri have already warned that a political crisis in Germany is automatically a crisis for the whole of Europe.