Bitcoin increased more than 40%, far surpassing gold and stocks

Bitcoin (BTC) increased 42.68% in the third quarter, from $58,559 per unit on June 30 to $83,554 on September 30. The price increase focused mainly in August when the world’s largest cryptocurrency improved by more than 25%. By the end of September, BTC was trading around 86,000 USD at times but was under pressure to adjust in the last days of the quarter.

Theo CoinDeskmomentum in the third quarter helped Bitcoin record its best quarterly results since 2024, after three consecutive quarters of decline.

In contrast to Bitcoin, SJC gold bars decreased by 1.84%, from 147 million VND to 144.3 million VND per tael. Gold rings decreased by 2.11%, from 146.9 million to 143.8 million VND per tael. Meanwhile, silver price decreased more than 5%, from 2,328 million to 2,211 million VND per tael.

The decline in gold and silver is mainly under pressure from a stronger USD, rising US bond yields and expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will continue to tighten monetary policy as energy prices increase inflation concerns. According to Reutersthese factors increase the opportunity cost of holding unprofitable precious metals, putting pressure on world gold and silver prices in the last days of September.

On the stock market, VN-Index ended the third quarter at 1,768.62 points, down 4.91% compared to the end of the second quarter. VN30-Index, representing the group of 30 large-cap stocks, also decreased 4.45%, to 1,906.81 points.

VN-Index decreased in the third quarter, showing that the expectation of a market upgrade does not mean that cash flow will immediately push stock prices up. Some securities companies believe that positive information may have been partly reflected in prices before announcement. Besides, the general index is also affected by the performance of some pillar codes, net selling activities of foreign investors and sentiment in response to global economic fluctuations.

Thus, the performance difference between Bitcoin and VN-Index in the third quarter amounted to nearly 48 percentage points. However, Bitcoin’s gains reflect price fluctuations over a specific period, which does not mean the asset will continue to outperform in subsequent quarters.

One of the driving forces supporting Bitcoin in the third quarter is the capital flow back to spot ETFs in the US. According to CoinDeskthese funds have attracted billions of dollars since the beginning of August, showing that investment demand through managed financial products has recovered. However, the cash flow into the ETF does not reflect all demand in the market. Statistics from the world’s leading blockchain data analysis company Glassnode show that BTC “treasury” businesses, i.e. groups that collect goods to wait for price increases, only bought about 5,900 additional units in the last 3 months, significantly lower than the same period last year.

Despite the price recovery, Bitcoin is still affected by monetary policy and the US bond market. CoinDesk Analytical analysis of the Bitfinex exchange suggests that rising real yields on US bonds are a drag on this cryptocurrency. As investors can get higher real yields from bonds, holding Bitcoin – an asset that does not generate recurring cash flows – becomes less attractive in terms of opportunity cost.

Regarding seasonal factors, derivatives market tracking platform Coinglass said that the fourth quarter is usually the period when Bitcoin has the strongest increase of the year. Since 2013, the average increase of Bitcoin this quarter is 77%, while the median is 47.7%. However, historical data does not guarantee similar results this year, especially when US bond yields, inflation and interest rate expectations can still change investors’ risk appetite.