Thought workshop Bruegel Visiting researcher, Polish economist Marek Dabrowski estimates that Ukraine is at a critical stage in Russia’s war of aggression, because since July, Russia has focused on airstrikes against the country’s largest cities, industrial centers, warehouses, and transport and energy infrastructure. Ballistic missiles and jet-powered aircraft are widely used in the attacks, against which Ukraine has limited countermeasures.
According to Dabrowski, these Russian attacks are causing far-reaching economic damage. At the same time, the blockade of the Black Sea export and import routes and the difficulty and high cost of using alternative transport routes have weakened Ukraine’s ability to export its two main export products, grain and steel. This is reflected in the deterioration of Ukraine’s macroeconomic situation.
Ukraine’s economic growth slowed already in the first half of the current year. In the third quarter, i.e. July-September, the economic situation deteriorated further, and the prospects for October-December and the beginning of 2027 are gloomy, according to Dabrowski.
“Taking into account the growing war damage and the expected halt in production, towards the end of 2026, revenues are likely to remain lower and spending needs higher than originally planned. At the same time, external support flowing into Ukraine’s coffers has decreased,” he states in his analysis.
Support was already reduced
In the first half of 2025, Ukraine received support of 42.7 billion euros, but in the first half of this year only 30.1 billion euros. At the same time, military support fell from 23.1 billion euros to 16.9 billion euros. The Ukrainian government has already requested $27 billion in additional military aid for 2026.
“Overall, Ukraine is in an extremely challenging situation. It deserves a more comprehensive long-term economic, military and humanitarian support package from its EU allies and other allies. The support should meet the country’s current needs,” says Dabrowski.
At the same time, Germany’s support for Ukraine, the largest EU country, is waning. Statistical support for Ukraine As an Institute according to the German Federal Government, of the 100 billion euros classified as “bilateral aid to Ukraine”, only about 41.7 billion euros can actually be classified as such aid. Of the amount announced by Germany, EUR 35.9 billion has been used for export and investment guarantees of German companies operating in Germany and Ukraine for the benefit of Ukrainian refugees. EUR 22.0 billion consists of future military aid commitments.
“Most of the civilian aid calculated by the German government for Ukraine is actually used in Germany – for Ukrainians living here. These funds do not support the Ukrainian government in its defense against Russian attacks. We wouldn’t even call social spending on Syrian refugees ‘bilateral aid to Syria'”, head of the Ukraine Support Tracker monitoring project Christoph Trebesch commented in the announcement.
He reminds that Germany is clearly the biggest European country that gives aid to Ukraine. However, the German government’s communication about aid is becoming more and more confused.
“The €100 billion figure is misleading and has been wrongly classified as ‘bilateral aid to Ukraine’. This is unfortunate.”
According to the Kiel Institute, continental European countries have so far supported Ukraine with a total of 137 billion euros, and the United States with 115 billion euros. In addition, support from EU institutions is 100 billion euros.
After the United States, Germany, Great Britain, Denmark, Norway and the Netherlands have paid the largest military support among individual countries. Latvia, Slovakia, Estonia, Australia, Lithuania, Spain, Belgium and Italy have given the least amount of support.