The Mexican economy continued to show positive signs of growth and, although slower than expected between April and June, the dynamism of the first half pointed to better data for 2023 as a whole, according to data released yesterday.
The gross domestic product (GDP) had a growth of 0.8 in the second quarter of the year compared to the previous quarter, while in its annual comparison the activity showed a rebound of 3.6 percent, according to the revised data from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi).
Within the framework of updating the System of National Accounts of Mexico to the new base year 2018, GDP was driven by secondary activities (industry) growing 1.2 percent quarterly and 3.9 percent annually. Services and commerce grew 0.7 percent in the second quarter and 3.4 percent compared to the same period in 2022.
Thus, in the first half of the year, the Mexican economy advanced 3.6 percent annually with seasonally adjusted figures.
Economic analysts forecast an average growth of 2.9 percent in 2023, according to the latest Citibanamex survey, while the Ministry of Finance estimates that Mexico could grow above 3 percent this year.
Although the data was lower than the timely estimate at the end of July of 0.9 percent quarterly and with a slightly lower rate than that observed in the first quarter of 3.8 percent annually with the new 2018 base, the national economy showed nine quarters consecutive with growth.
Changes with new base
When taking into account that the base year of the figures was changed (from 2013 to 2018), which implied modifications in the weightings of the sectors and changes in the seasonal adjustments, alterations in the historical series result.
With all the information available, new economic censuses, matrix of recent inputs, and intersectoral relations, GDP is worth 2.8 percent more; that is, the country’s economy has a different level. In terms of pesos, with the 2013 base, GDP was worth 23.5 trillion pesos, and with the new base it is worth 24.2 trillion.
In the second quarter of 2020, the year the pandemic began, GDP plummeted 18.8 percent, while with the new series the fall was 20.07 percent, confirming its downward trend. Meanwhile, the rebound in the second quarter of 2021 was more marked with the new series: 22.4 versus 19.4 percent.
With the new base, GDP shows an expansion of 2.95 percent, compared to the all-time high prior to the pandemic reached in the third quarter of 2018. GDP for the second quarter of 2023 stands at a new all-time high and shows a recovery of 4.17 percent, compared to the fourth quarter of 2019, the level prior to the impact of the pandemic.
According to specialists, the base change made by the Inegi, like every five years, added almost one percentage point to the GDP accumulated since the last quarter of 2018.
Given the new patterns of production, transportation, consumption and investment, among others, in Mexico, the Inegi standardized the most widely used macroeconomic data that reflects the behavior of the country’s economic development and updated the reference base year to 2018.
six-year comparison
With the new data, according to Julio Santaella, former president of Inegi, the administration with the best growth was that of Carlos Salinas, with 3.97 percent during his administration; Ernesto Zedillo followed him, with 3.58 percent. Meanwhile, in the first four years of the present administration, an increase in GDP of 0.18 percent was reported, which will be completed with the data for 2023 and 2024.