Amid the rise in geopolitical tensions and new highs in oil and gold, the dollar showed weakness this Tuesday, allowing the Mexican peso to return to levels not seen since the end of 2015. The Mexican currency appreciated 0.42 percent, equivalent to 7.02 cents against the US currency, to close at 16.5610 units per dollar spot.
According to the Bank of Mexico (BdeM), the exchange rate operated between a maximum of 16.6000 units and a minimum of 16.5520. Thus, the national currency accumulated a gain so far this year of 2.4 percent.
In the survey of expectations of private BdeM analysts, it stands out that experts predict that the exchange rate will remain at levels of 18 pesos per dollar during 2024 and 2025, as they foresee a price of 18.12 and 18.80 per dollar, respectively.
Investors keep in mind the better-than-expected data on China’s manufacturing activity, which occurred in parallel with the first growth in 18 months of this same indicator in the United States, so the industrial reactivation reflected in these data translates in a rebound in the interest on the US debt, which rose to 4,359 percent, its highest level in 2024.
Stumble on Wall Street
Economic strength could delay the decline in interest rates in the United States, as the probability of a cut in June has dropped from 70 percent last week to 61 percent today.
The interest on the debt also testifies to the greater inflationary tensions carried by the oil market, due to the fact that a barrel of Brent exceeded $89 for the first time since last October.
Israel’s attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus may lead to an escalation in the Middle East conflict, and investors respond with a new position in the oil market.
The West Texas barrel, the benchmark in the United States, reached $85.15, gaining 1.72 percent this Tuesday; and Brent closed at $88.92, an increase of 1.71 percent. For its part, the Mexican mix closed at 78.15 dollars per barrel, 1.85 percent more than its previous price.
Gold gained appeal as a safe haven asset due to fear of a geopolitical escalation, hence it gained 1.91 percent, to $2,300.15 per troy ounce.
Tesla’s sales decline took its toll on Wall Street, which closed with losses, while investors assimilated the possibility that a rate cut in the US could occur later than expected.