In Europe they warned of the thinning of the population, the data showed that the situation is more serious

For years, the demographic forecasts have been causing sleepless nights for politicians and economists in Western Europe. In terms of birth rates, the situation in the leading countries on the continent has deteriorated to unrecognizable regions in recent decades. They said goodbye to the turnover rate (2.1 children on average per woman) already in the 1970s, and since then the situation for them has only been deteriorating. A policy to encourage childbirth was formulated, generous maternity leaves were distributed, laws against layoffs were adopted. Much has been done to change the trend of falling birthrates that threatens European growth and the entire pension model, before it is too late.

Then came the data of the past year in two of the largest economies in Europe – Germany and Italy – and proved that the situation only got worse. In Germany, the Federal Institute for Demographic Research (BiB) published surprising results about two weeks ago, according to which the birth rate in the country “dropped sharply” in the last two years. It is now the lowest since 2009, and is in line with an ongoing downward trend that has been going on since roughly 1965.

So, the “baby boom” after the World War manifested itself in a birth rate of 2.47. Now, it has decreased in just two years from 1.57 in 2021 to 1.36 at the end of 2023. “We did not expect such sharp downward changes,” said the experts of the German Communication Institute, explaining that such a 13% decrease in such a short period of time is “abnormal.” .

They attributed the explanations to the corona epidemic, which caused many couples to postpone or cancel plans to start a family, to the “geopolitical uncertainty” created as a result of the war in Ukraine and global tensions, and also to the fear of the people of Germany about the consequences of climate change on the world.

“In such times of multiple crises, many do not want to realize their desire to have children,” said Martin Boyard, one of the researchers who led the study. According to him, time will tell if this desire has reawakened and there will be an increase compared to the figures of the previous years, which also do not promise much regarding the prosperity of the population.

Family values ​​abandoned?

Even in Italy, where the issue of birth and the family is much more central to the political agenda, data were published last week showing that the number of babies born in the country last year dropped significantly. The situation in Italy is worse than in Germany: the birth rate in the country dropped from an average of 1.24 children per woman in 2022 to only 1.2 last year. Only 379 thousand babies were born in Italy this year, compared to 393 thousand the year before. In fact, according to the Italian Statistics Agency, this is the lowest number of babies born in Italy since its unification into one kingdom in 1861.

Women in Italy give birth for the first time at a relatively old age, 31.6 on average, the highest in the European Union. The reasons for the “demographic winter” passing over the country in recent years are related to culture, work, economic incentives and education, experts explain, and even issues such as a housing crisis, which prevents people from leaving their parents’ homes in their 20s, for example.

Therefore, the current government’s promises to “reverse the trend” meet a very complex reality. “It will take a long time to change the trend and it is a matter of consistent policy over the years,” demographer Francesco Bilari of the University of Milan told the FT, “it is unlikely that one campaign, however significant, by one government will change the way people perceive their revolution to parents”.

But the current government, led by George Maloney, is certainly trying to make the issue a priority. The issue of the “traditional family” and encouraging childbirth were part of Maloney’s campaign, who also has “only” one child and is not married. “We have to do this if we want Italy to have a future,” she said. Among other things, Maloney’s government increased child allowances, halved the VAT on baby products and also took over for a certain period the pension payments of mothers of two children, with the aim of increasing their income. Similar measures, which include an increase in child allowances, an extension of Maternity leave and more have been implemented in Germany in recent years in a similar attempt to encourage childbirth.

According to the latest data, it seems that they are not working in the field. Some economists believe that the benefits are simply not enough. “There’s a lot of talk about the role of a mother in Italy, but the reality is that if you don’t earn enough money, you can’t be a mother anymore,” a gender economics expert from the University of Rome told the FT.

“We need to help women work, earn money, and then they can decide if they want to be mothers,” she said. Others believe that cultural factors play a major role. In Germany, for example, the social expectation from women is to raise the children for the first three or four years, and sending toddlers to kindergarten at the age of one is a kind of “social taboo” and a sign of bad parenting. Therefore, many women see raising children as an alternative step to a career, and give it up.

before it’s too late

The situation in Italy and Germany is shared by many Western countries that lead the world ranking in terms of GDP per capita, an accepted measure of progress. There are countries where the birth rate is even lower, and exceptional countries such as South Korea where the birth rate is negative (under 1). But Even without this situation, the existing pension models in Western European countries, which rely on a workforce that finances the pensions of those who have retired with regular payments, are in danger.

This is the reason, among other things, for raising the retirement age to 65 and discussing whether it should be raised further. France is actually one of the European leaders in the average number of children per woman (1.83), and experts attribute this to a long-standing culture and the state’s support for raising children. Demographers warn that the ongoing trend is making the potential for a change of direction more and more impossible. Today, only 11.4 million women in Italy are of childbearing age, compared to 13.8 million women two decades ago. “We don’t have enough potential mothers and fathers to make up for decades of low fertility,” Bilari said.

In Israel, by the way, the situation is fundamentally different, and it is one of the countries with the highest birth rate in the developed countries, with an average of 3.03 children per woman in 2022. The analysis of the data shows that not only the religious sectors are responsible for this, but also the secular ones. Israel has also seen a decline in recent years, but it is more moderate compared to that recorded in Italy and Germany.

Encouraging immigration in Germany

In Europe, the demographic issue gets mixed up with local politics, and especially with the right-wing claims in Europe regarding the “replacement” of the local population with immigrants coming from around the world. The data from Italy actually show that the proportion of children of immigrants who arrived in the country last year was 13.3% of the total number of births, compared to 15% about a decade ago. The German government, among other things in an attempt to deal with the economic problems arising from a shrinking population, recently decided to try and encourage an immigration policy of skilled and educated personnel through benefits that include rapid naturalization and the possibility of maintaining the original citizenship.