Critics believe that the online comparison service Comparis’ estimate of a further increase in health insurance premiums is premature. However, healthcare costs are likely to continue to rise.
“Health insurance premiums will rise by 6 percent in 2025”: The online comparison service Comparis caused a stir on Thursday with this forecast.
This is mainly due to timing. On June 9th, the Swiss people will finally vote on the SP’s premium relief initiative and the centrist’s cost-cutting initiative for the healthcare system. The first of the two proposals could be particularly expensive: According to it, insured people should have to spend a maximum of 10 percent of their disposable income on health insurance premiums – if it were to pass, the federal finances would probably be burdened with additional billions of francs.
If the Comparis forecast comes true, this would be the third hefty increase in health insurance premiums in a row – after increases of 6.6 percent for 2023 and 8.7 percent for 2024. The fear of even higher premiums could therefore lead voters to vote yes on June 9, despite the difficult consequences for the federal budget.
Criticism of the health insurance premium forecast
The Comparis estimate is therefore causing criticism among industry representatives. “It is still too early to forecast health insurance premiums for 2025,” says Matthias Müller, head of policy and communication at the health insurance industry association Santésuisse. The health insurers were only just preparing their premium applications to the Federal Office of Public Health (BAG) and had not yet submitted them. The deadline for this is July 31st. The Federal Department of the Interior (EDI) will not communicate the bonuses until the second half of September.
Health economist Pius Gyger is even more explicit. Comparis does not have the information from the health insurers’ premium budget processes. “These are inevitably rough estimates that are made on the basis of the business reports. The information is not comprehensible.”
“A further increase in health insurance premiums for the coming year is realistic,” says Marcel Thom, partner and head of health insurance at the consulting firm Deloitte Switzerland. However, the extent of the premium increase is currently very difficult to estimate, “also in view of the upcoming referendums.”
Healthcare costs continue to rise
However, economists and health insurance representatives agree that premiums are likely to continue to rise. “The rising health costs are a major concern for us, because in the long term, higher costs are inevitably reflected in higher health insurance premiums,” says Müller from Santésuisse.
Comparis health expert Felix Schneuwly bases his forecast of a 6 percent increase in health insurance premiums next year on the growth in health care costs. According to the latest forecast from the online comparison service together with the ETH Economic Research Center (KOF), this was 4.1 percent last year. An increase of 3.6 percent is expected for the current year and 3.2 percent for 2025.
Many hospitals in Switzerland are no longer able to cover their costs and are therefore charging higher tariffs, Schneuwly continues. The care initiative will also cause costs. However, according to Schneuwly, premiums would have increased less in recent years if the BAG had not forced health insurance companies to reduce reserves.
Stefan Felder, a professor at the University of Basel, also fears that health care costs and health insurance premiums will continue to rise in the coming years. “Everything is geared towards more,” he says. The population has high expectations and is demanding more medical services. However, there is no effort to contribute more to the costs. In addition, there are incentives in the system for overtreatment.
“Unfortunately, the introduction of the Tardoc doctors’ tariff is not making any progress,” says Felder. Recently there were reports that SP Federal Councillor Elisabeth Baume-Schneider wants to go one step further with the introduction of the tariff. The Tardoc is intended to replace the current Tarmed tariff, which is considered outdated and creates the wrong incentives. Doctors and hospitals receive too much money for some treatments, but not enough for others. The introduction of the Tardoc is intended to reduce costs in the health system.
“The tense financial situation of health insurers, the trend towards increasing costs of medical services and the expected economic development are driving up health insurance premiums,” says Thom.