This year’s Super El Nino could cause an energy crisis

El Nino is the warm phase of the El Nino – Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a natural climate cycle driven by fluctuations in ocean temperature and atmospheric pressure in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. ENSO causes knock-on effects across the globe, affecting everything from rainfall, drought, storms, and heat waves. ENSO typically produces a warm El Niño followed by a cold phase La Nina every 2-7 years.

El Nino is confirmed to occur when the average ocean surface temperature increases by at least 0.5 degrees Celsius for five consecutive months or more compared to the long-term average. Last month, the Climate Prediction Center of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced that there is a 62% chance of El Nino appearing from June to August.

According to the weather website AccuWeatherif it occurs as predicted, El Nino could strengthen into a “super El Nino” with sea surface temperatures at least 2 degrees Celsius higher than the long-term average. The China Meteorological Administration also said last weekend that a moderate to strong El Nino is forecast to appear next month and continue to develop for the rest of the year. Some computer models, including Europe’s highly regarded synthetic model, also strongly predict the possibility of this phenomenon forming, possibly even developing into a super El Nino in late autumn.

“A strong El Nino can cause severe flooding, forcing hydropower plants to reduce output or shut down, and damage power lines and transformer stations due to landslides and rising water levels. Conversely, in the event of a drought, electricity generation is also affected due to a sharp decrease in water supply,” said Wang Yaqi, a senior engineer at the China National Climate Center.

This warning was issued after global oil prices increased sharply due to the Middle East conflict leading to the Strait of Hormuz almost closing. This is a major oil and gas transportation route, playing an important role in global energy supply.

Mr. Wang said that El Nino could severely affect hydropower-dependent communities such as South Asia, Southeast Asia and some parts of Africa, forcing them to burn more fossil fuels to produce energy, causing oil and gas demand to increase sharply and possibly pushing prices even higher.

In addition, 2026 is forecast to be one of the hottest years in history if super El Nino occurs. Many people believe that rising temperatures will boost photovoltaic production, but in fact, intense heat can reduce solar cell performance, while also increasing pressure on the power grid.

“Many people mistakenly think that the hotter the sun, the more energy produced. However, solar cells are semiconductors, and like all electronic devices, their performance decreases as the temperature increases,” Ioanna Vergini, founder wfy24.com, Weather data analysis platform and climate fluctuation trends, explained with Euronews Earth.

For every additional degree above 25 degrees Celsius, solar cell efficiency decreases by about 0.4-0.5%. During the extreme heat waves that gripped Spain and Greece last summer, many local solar farms significantly reduced output just as demand for air conditioning peaked. “We have observed cases where the surface temperature on the panel reached 65 degrees Celsius, resulting in a theoretical capacity reduction of nearly 20%,” Vergini added.

Similar to the case of hydropower, reduced photovoltaic output could lead to increased burning of fossil fuels to meet energy needs. That would increase carbon emissions and the cost of imported energy, creating a negative vicious cycle, exacerbating climate change and putting pressure on the economy.

The most recent Super El Nino occurred in 2015, and the following year broke average global temperature records. Another El Nino wave forms in 2023 and 2024 also sets a global average temperature record, becoming the hottest year in history.

However, Chen Lijuan, head of the climate forecasting department of the China National Climate Center, called for caution against reports that this year’s El Nino will be the strongest in 140 years or cause a global heat emergency. She said: “Considering the delay in the impact of El Nino, it is still too early to confirm that the Earth will reach a new extreme temperature threshold this year. However, the related risks are certainly increasing significantly.”