An Italian study highlights the doubling of global warming since 2013

The scientific investigation started from the review of previous mathematical models which, despite having identified a variation in the trend of the first years of the last decade after having purified the data from natural variability, presented critical issues from the point of view of statistical reliability. The adoption of a new computational methodology has allowed the extent of the ongoing change to be quantified with mathematical precision. Empirical evidence indicates that the global temperature growth rate has gone from an average of 0.16-0.18 °C per decade to between 0.34 and 0.42 °C per decadeconfirming the robustness of the data on all analyzed samples from the archives of NASA, NOAA, HadCRU, Berkeley and the ERA5 reanalysis system.

Average monthly temperatures with trends obtained from the analysis of Triacca and Pasini using a continuous piecewise linear model.

Regarding the methodological approach used for the validation of the results, Umberto Triacca of the Department of Engineering, Information Sciences and Mathematics of the University of L’Aquila, first author of the essay, explains: “In our work we started from a recent study by foreign colleagues who, once five different series of global temperatures were purified from natural variability factors, actually found a change in the rate of warming since the early years of the last decade. However, as we show, their statistical analysis did not make the results absolutely reliable. We thus applied a different method, highlighting a clear turning point in 2013-2014, years from which the rate of increase in global temperature even doubled, from 0.16-0.18 °C/decade to 0.34-0.42“.

The definition of this increment opens new research scenarios aimed at isolating the chemical-physical components and anthropic activities that triggered the thermal acceleration of the last decade. The next phases of the study will focus on identifying similar anomalies in other environmental variables, such as the concentration of sulphates in the atmosphere or variations in the Earth’s albedo. Antonello Pasini of the Cnr-Iia, corresponding author of the publication, underlines the future development of the investigations: “Our results are extremely reliable and are valid for all the series considered, which come from the most important research centers: NASA, NOAA, HadCRU, Berkeley and ERA5. The development of these studies will be to connect this change of pace in global temperature to the subsequent possible causes, natural or due to human action, looking for similar points of change in other causal variables such as anthropogenic emissions of sulphates or the reflectivity properties of the planet. After these statistical analyses, we will be able to analyze the evolution of the climate system with our dynamic and artificial intelligence models“.

The evidence of faster climate change requires a reconsideration of environmental mitigation policies, even in the absence of a definitive mapping of all the individual triggering causes. The management of controllable factors remains the operational priority to contain the risks linked to thermal anomalies in the atmosphere. Pasini concludes the analysis by highlighting the need for timely interventions on emissions: “In the current context, in which we are witnessing a new change but do not yet understand its specific causes, we believe that it becomes even more important to act in the areas we can control and minimize, as far as possible, the human impact on rising temperatures“.