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The United States has sent a message to TikTok: either sell the company or close. It’s now official. ByteDance, the company’s Chinese parent company, has 9 months to decide what to do. These are the main questions about what can happen.
1. Is it a ban?
Not necessarily. They could sell the app to an American company and everything would remain more or less the same; although it is somewhat unlikely because it is not the first option for TikTok, which says that the new law is in fact a ban and that they want to go to court: “This unconstitutional law is a ban on TikTok, and we will challenge it in court,” the company says in a statement. If that happens, the Supreme Court will have to decide if the law violates the freedom of expression of the platform and its users, a very delicate matter in the United States.
A judicial process could extend this initial period of nine months. So in 2024 not much more will happen. There are elections in November and Donald Trump, who tried to ban TikTok in 2020, is now more benevolent. There may be changes.
2. I am European or Latin American. What will happen to me?
If you don’t live in the US, nothing will happen directly. But a TikTok without the 170 million users that TikTok claims to have in the US would be another network. Not only because of the videos they create and watch, but because of the trends or challenges that arise from the main online market. Maybe some big users will move to Canada or Mexico, but they’re unlikely to make all that effort if their primary market, TikTok users in the US, has vanished.
3. Surely there will be some trick to continue using TikTok in the US…
No. Apple and Google should remove the app from their stores. Updates would end. Internet providers will also have to limit access. Although using a VPN is a common trick to access the internet as if you were in another country, with app stores it is a greater and unaffordable effort for most users.
4. Who wins with the possible veto?
In a word, Zuckerberg. If any network is similar to TikTok today, it is Instagram and its Reels. They are in fact a copy. For many influencers from TikTok, replicating its success won’t be easy on Reels, but there are few alternatives. Reels does not stop growing and already represents 50% of the time that Instagram users spend in the app. It’s an impressive increase for an app that used to be about photos. There are also YouTube Shorts, but the type of content is even more different from TikTok than Reels, although behind the three options is the same vertical video format.
5. The threat alone makes you rethink the relationship with the app
This lack of a clear alternative, and the fact that the threat is not immediate, will mean that TikTok users will continue on that social network as if nothing had happened. But there will be a part, the content creators who have the most to lose, who will have to divide their efforts among other platforms in case the veto occurs.
6. But why all this?
National security is the big reason. Supporters of the law say that on TikTok it is easier to see Americans doubled by fentanyl or Chinese cities glowing at dusk and more difficult to find content about Chinese repression against the Uyghurs or that represents the American dream. This type of propaganda wouldn’t be a reason to shut down anything, but TikTok is a growing source of information for citizens in the West. The Biden campaign has a prominent TikTok account.
If there was a war over Taiwan, would China pressure TikTok to promote or hide certain types of videos? Or to interfere in a very competitive presidential election in the United States, like next November? This year there was a controversy, which many congressmen took into account when voting on the law, because a rumor spread – it is not clear that it is supported by data, after successive scrutiny – that more pro-Palestinian than pro-Israeli information was seen on that platform, after the start of the Gaza war. He New York Times He even published a chart, which has been widely circulated, comparing the thorny issues for China on Reels and TikTok:
In the last 24 hours, two of our leading media sources (NYT & WSJ) have produced research pieces with hard data on why the U.S. should ban TikTok.
Here is the NYT’s killer chart. Tiktok systematically censors 80-99% of posts on certain viewpoints, relative to Instagram.
1/3 pic.twitter.com/mStDgMAplH— ₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital Smart (@BeenThereCap) April 24, 2024
The US government has not provided evidence that TikTok manipulates its platform, although some congressmen have hinted that they have seen interesting confidential material. China has blocked American companies in its country for years. Neither Google nor Facebook or Instagram are there. This week, without much fuss, Apple removed WhatsApp and Threads, two Meta applications, from its Chinese store. The reason? “Concern for their national security,” according to the American multinational.
7. Are you sure there is no other solution?
There are always other solutions. The Chinese government has given itself the right to veto the secret sauce of TikTok, the famous algorithm that recognizes users’ tastes so well. This Thursday The Information published that TikTok is considering selling the app, but without its algorithm: it would only sell the brand and the audience. It would be like buying Coca Cola without its formula.
TikTok launched the so-called Texas Project, together with Oracle, to ensure that Americans’ data stayed on servers in the country. But it hasn’t convinced anyone. If China wanted Americans’ data, there is an unregulated advertising market where they can pay and find whatever they want.
8. Is he as fat as he looks?
Yes and no. India had 200 million users on TikTok and closed the app overnight. The reason was, more clearly, also one of national security: they were at war with China on the border. Since then, there are more Indians on Reels and many others who simply are not on any. It is also banned in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Many other countries limit their downloads to officials’ phones.
9. Does it have anything to do with TikTok Lite in Europe?
Nothing. Zero. The European Commission has its own battle with the Chinese giant over an app launched in tests in Spain and France called TikTok Lite. The app rewards users who watch a lot of videos or invite other users with cents. Brussels believes that it can be addictive and dangerous for minors. They have asked TikTok to certify that they know what they are doing. At the moment they have not responded and continue negotiating. Meanwhile, the platform has suspended the activity of the new app.