War in the Middle East: Israel and Lebanon: Will the ceasefire lead to peace?

What exactly did Israel and Lebanon agree to?

The Lebanese government and with it the Lebanese army are not an active belligerent in the recent conflict that took place between Hezbollah and Israel.

Officially, Israel and Lebanon have been at war for decades. It is all the more remarkable that this week, for the first time in decades, there were high-level contacts between representatives of the two countries under US mediation and, as a result, an agreement between the two officially hostile countries.

The agreement between the two countries published by the US State Department specifically states that the ceasefire will initially last ten days, but could be extended if negotiations make progress. The Lebanese government should use international help to prevent Hezbollah from attacking Israel, it is said. At the same time, Israel should refrain from “offensive” operations against targets in Lebanon, but the country may defend itself against planned, imminent or ongoing attacks. The agreement emphasizes that the Lebanese security forces alone are responsible for the sovereignty and defense of Lebanon.

What are the chances that the ceasefire will hold? Does Hezbollah feel bound by this?

There is concern in Lebanon that the current ceasefire is tantamount to agreeing to a ceasefire in 2024: At that time, both sides continued to accuse each other of violations. At that time, the Israeli military continued to attack Lebanon almost daily and, according to the UN, repeatedly killed civilians. Just a few hours after this ceasefire came into force at midnight (local time), the Lebanese army accused Israel of shelling several villages in the south of the country.

Hezbollah said at midday that its fighters would “keep their hands on the trigger.” One remains vigilant against “the treachery and treachery of the enemy.” After the intensive Israeli attacks – and the long war in 2023/24 – Hezbollah is fundamentally considered weakened. At the beginning of March, her military activities were also banned by the state.

Observers assume that the success of the ceasefire is largely linked to the negotiations between Iran, the USA and Israel. “If there were a breakdown in the Iranian-American talks, there would certainly be an incentive for Hezbollah to continue,” said analyst Michael Young from the Carnegie Middle East Center to the German Press Agency. Hezbollah is acting according to the Iranian agenda. At the same time, Young assumes that Israel still has an interest in carrying out attacks against Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Why did Netanyahu agree to the ceasefire?

Just a few days ago, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected a ceasefire in Lebanon. Although there is great criticism in Israel that the war goals have not been achieved and that the population in northern Israel continues to be threatened by Hezbollah, Netanyahu has now given in – according to Israeli observers, under pressure from Washington. The US is Israel’s most important ally, and Washington needs this ceasefire for negotiations with Iran. US President Donald Trump complied with a request from Iran with the ceasefire, writes the Israeli newspaper “Haaretz”.

Iran had pushed for a ceasefire in Lebanon and initially even threatened to abandon the ceasefire agreed with the USA at the beginning of April because of the ongoing Israeli attacks on its allied Hezbollah. A commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards viewed the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon as a success for Tehran, according to the Fars news agency.

According to some experts, Netanyahu is also hoping for Trump’s support for the election campaign – a new parliament must be elected in Israel by October at the latest.

Are Israel and Lebanon making peace now?

The question of a lasting peace agreement depends on many factors. The recent political talks alone have caused unrest in Lebanon. Much now depends on the success of Hezbollah’s disarmament process in the country, said Young. “We have to wait and see how the army proceeds and whether it is even capable of doing this.” The Lebanese army was tasked with disarmament. A lot is still unclear. If Israel finds Lebanon unable to disarm Hezbollah, the war would continue, Young said.

What is the mood in Lebanon and Israel?

Around 1.2 million people in Lebanon have been displaced in more than six weeks of war. According to authorities, around 2,200 people were killed in the war in Lebanon. Despite a warning from the Israeli military to residents in Lebanon not to venture south of the Litani River, about 30 kilometers from the Israeli border, thousands of people already made their way to their southern hometowns that morning. There is widespread destruction in southern Lebanon, in the Bekaa Valley in the east and in the southern suburbs of the capital Beirut. But many don’t trust the current ceasefire and don’t want to return for the time being.

Many people in Israel also believe that the war could continue as long as Hezbollah is not disarmed. According to current information from the Israeli army, Hezbollah has fired more than 8,000 rockets, mortar shells and drones into Israel in recent weeks. Before the ceasefire began, it was said that there were more than 6,500. There were also repeated injuries and deaths in Israel. Representatives from northern Israeli towns said after the ceasefire was announced that northern residents felt “betrayed.”