Trump and the ‘buoy strategy’: the naval blockade to strangle Iran’s economy

Trump has instructed his aides to implement a prolonged blockade of Iranian ports. Washington wants to continue squeezing Iranian oil exports by blocking shipping routes. “Their economy is collapsing, their currency is worthless. They just have to say ‘we surrender,'” Trump says. The tactics are clear. “The enemy has entered a new phase and wants to exert economic pressure and sow divisions within the country through a naval blockade and media manipulation, in order to weaken us from within or even collapse us,” says Mohammad Baqer Ghalibaf, speaker of the Iranian Parliament.

Plan B with new attacks

The indefinite blockade, deemed effective by Trump, would however have the effect of prolonging the conflict which has already cost 25 billion dollars. The war and the paralysis of the Strait have already increased the prices of oil, which have soared well above 100 dollars a barrel, and of fuel. The emergency affects a large part of the planet, given that 20% of the world’s crude oil transited through Hormuz. Every country seeks corrective measures and remedies: Italy, for example, evaluates the extension of the excise duty cut to lighten prices at the distributor, with particular attention to diesel.

The topic is very topical for Trump too. The prospect of a prolonged naval blockade was discussed at the White House in a meeting with the heads of major American oil and gas companies. During the meeting, some managers expressed support for maintaining the stranglehold.

To avoid the risk of a prolonged war, however, the president could opt for a sudden change of tactics. The United States Central Command (Centcom) has prepared a plan for a wave of “short and powerful” attacks in the hope of breaking the deadlock in negotiations, Axios reveals, citing three different informed sources. After the offensive, which would also target infrastructure, the US would press again on the regime to push Tehran to return to negotiations with greater flexibility.

Yes to dialogue, but only on the phone

“Iran can’t get a move on. They don’t know how to sign a non-nuclear deal. They better wake up soon,” Trump says with yet another warning. “The Iranians have come a long way. The problem is whether they have come enough or not. At the moment there will be no agreement if they do not agree to give up nuclear weapons”, he reiterates. Contacts continue even without face-to-face meetings. The negotiations scheduled in Islamabad have fallen through, but the dialogue is alive. “We are talking to them, we no longer have to face 18-hour flights. We talk by phone, it’s more convenient. I call, or my collaborators call, and the answer comes in 15 minutes”, he explains.

The president’s words do not reveal any particular haste. Trump is convinced that Iran will be forced to accept the Stars and Stripes conditions. For the American president, the signs are clear. Iran’s national currency has reached an all-time low against the dollar since the advent of the Islamic Republic in 1979: on the black market a dollar is exchanged for around 1.8 million rials, while for a euro it costs 2.1 million rials. Two months ago, before the outbreak of the war triggered by the United States and Israel, the rate was around 1.7 million rials for one dollar and 2 million rials for one euro.

Emergency in Tehran

Trump believes that the oil industry of the Islamic Republic, which has had no outlets for weeks, risks imploding: without exports, the system is subjected to increasing stress destined to send the mechanism into a tailspin. The long wave of the blockade fuels unemployment and makes the importation of basic necessities increasingly complex. Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad urges the population to reduce consumption, defining “saving and conservation” as a general principle “and a religious duty”.

“The enemy will achieve nothing with a naval blockade of Iran,” the minister says, as reported by the media. Officially, “there is no reason to worry” about the supply and distribution of fuel. In fact, Tehran has already taken emergency measures. Government offices across Iran have been instructed to reduce electricity use by up to 70% after 1pm, while households are urged to reduce consumption with incentives.