Hormuz blockade complicates Trump – Xi meeting in China

The president of the United States, Donald Trumpis ready to maintain the blockade on Iranian maritime traffic until Teheran he will not give in to his requestsa choice that makes it almost certain that Strait of Hormuz it will stay closed even at the time of his visit to Beijing Between two weeks. A perspective that significantly complicates theencounter with the Chinese President Xi Jinpingforcing the White House to review theapproach to the attempt to rapprochement with China.

He brings it back to aanalyses il New York Times. Beijingboth publicly and in confidential contactsasked forcefully reopening of the sea route from which it matters about a third of one’s own oil and gas. The same Xi recently reiterated the need for the ride remains open at the normal navigationdefining it incommon interest from the region and of international community.

Trump’s hard line

Ma Trump he rejected this line, claiming the block come strategic leverage: “Il block And brilliant and it was 100% effective”, he declared, confirming theintention Of keep it. The visit to Beijingscheduled for 14 maggio and of term Of two dayshe should have concentrated on a commercial agreement and up security issues come Taiwanthe claims in the South China Seathe cyber activities and the Chinese nuclear program.

The conflict with Iran

Ma he conflict with Iran and his global economic effects they now risk dominate the agenda. The American strategywhich combines bombings conducted with Israel per 38 days and one economic squeeze through theinterception of ships directed to Iranian portshas not yet produced i expected results.

Total surrender and political limits

Trump keep asking for one total surrender: “They just have to say ‘we give up‘” he said, despite warnings Of intelligence e analysts according to which the Iranian power structure makes one unlikely unconditional capitulation. Teheranfor its part, has maintained a constant lineimposing its own form of blockade in the Persian Gulf That discourages him too Arab states from passing PETROLEUM in strict.

Nuclear and military options

L’latest Iranian proposal Of reopen the strait postponing i nuclear negotiations was rejected and Trumpwhich considers the block the more effective leverage to force the country to export its 11 tons of enriched uranium e suspend the nuclear activities per years. Inside theAmerican administration I’m at studio diverse optionsincluding the extension of the block per months or one resumption of military operations.

Internal pressures and the China effect

However, the president has to deal with internal political limits: the 60 day window for theuse of force without congressional authorization expires soon and some Republicans have already expressed opposition still’extension. They are also growing worries for theeconomic and political impact of the conflictespecially with the oil price above i 110 dollars a barrel. In this context, the role of China appears more and more central.

Beijing, main customer of the Iranian oilcould be apply pressure are Teheran to get concessionsenter theeconomic impact from the energy crisis risks being for theChinese economy superior to that of duties imposed by United States.