The country that is close to collapse: the US is preparing for the “Venezuela blueprint”

In recent days, the US has been dramatically increasing the pressure on Cuba, while the communist country is facing one of the worst low points in its history. The government in Havana has admitted in recent days that the fuel reserves have been completely exhausted, the power outages sometimes last more than 20 hours a day, and in various cities violent protests and riots have begun against the background of the ongoing collapse.

Along with the economic and energy crisis, the Trump administration is also expanding the political and security pressure on the island. Senior American officials told the New York Times that the intelligence agencies and the US military have widely increased surveillance and intelligence flights around Cuba, as part of a broader deployment in the Caribbean region. Last week CNN reported that the scope of intelligence flights around Cuba is similar to the scope that preceded the invasion of Venezuela and the war with Iran.

At the same time, the possibility of filing an indictment against former President Raul Castro, the 94-year-old brother of Fidel Castro, is being considered, in a move that recalls the steps taken by the United States against Venezuela before the capture of President Nicolás Maduro in January. Officials in the United States told the New York Times that the Trump administration at least wants to preserve the possibility of using the “Venezuelan blueprint” in Cuba in the future. Although there is no indication of immediate military action, the very threat is intended to increase the pressure on the leadership in Havana and bring it to concessions.

CIA Director John Ratcliffe arrived on Thursday for a public and unusual visit to Cuba, designed to deliver a sharp message to the Cuban leadership. The New York Times reported that Ratcliffe demanded that Cuba shut down Russian and Chinese listening devices operating on the island and make dramatic economic changes. He met with the grandson of Raul Castro, Raul G. Rodrigues Castro, known as “Raolito” or “The Crab” and considered a senior security official in the country, and with the senior officials of Cuba’s security and intelligence establishment, including the Minister of the Interior and the head of intelligence.

The visit is considered particularly unusual due to the long history of conflict between the CIA and Cuba, including the failed Bay of Pigs invasion in 1961 and the assassination attempts on Fidel Castro over the years. Experts in the US said that the very public announcement of the visit was intended to serve as a public ultimatum to the leadership in Havana.

At the same time, federal prosecutors in Miami are working on forming a possible indictment against Raul Castro. According to reports, the charges may include drug-trafficking offenses as well as responsibility for the downing of two planes belonging to the aid organization “Brothers to the Rescue” in 1996, an incident in which four people were killed. Republican members of Congress had already called earlier this year to prosecute Castro on the grounds that he was directly responsible for the downing of the planes.

Sources close to the Trump administration said that even if military action is not carried out, the very threat of arresting one of the symbols of the Cuban revolution is intended to undermine the security of the local leadership and send a message to the exiled Cuban community in Miami as well.

As US pressure mounts, the situation inside Cuba continues to rapidly deteriorate. The Cuban Minister of Energy, Vicente de la O Levy, announced that the country was left without the fuel oil and diesel needed to operate the power plants. “We have no fuel, no diesel,” he said at a press conference. According to him, in Havana the power outages sometimes last more than 20 hours a day.

Since the flow of oil from Venezuela stopped completely in January, following the US takeover of Venezuela’s oil industry and the imposition of an effective embargo on fuel shipments to Cuba, the local economy has almost come to a standstill. The Cuban government claims that this is an American “energy blockade”. The lack of fuel has led to the closing of schools, the reduction of public transport and serious disruptions in the food supply. Residents are forced to cook with charcoal or wood, Many are sleeping on rooftops or on beaches due to the intense heat and lack of air conditioning, and in various cities streets were seen completely dark.

In Havana and other cities, protests broke out in recent days, during which residents knocked over pots, blocked streets and set garbage on fire. Children blocked a central avenue in the capital in protest of the power outages. According to reports, the authorities cut off the Internet in areas where the protests were particularly intense, in an attempt to prevent their spread.

The Wall Street Journal quoted an independent journalist in Cuba who described the situation as “a return to the Stone Age”. According to her, there was no electricity in her neighborhood for about 20 hours, and the water supply was also damaged because the water pumps work with electricity.

At the same time as the crisis, the United States also increased its intelligence and surveillance activities around the island. According to American officials, patrol planes of the Navy and Air Force, including P-8 planes, RC-135 planes and drones of various models, make frequent flights near the shores of Cuba. Flight tracking data published online showed that at least 25 such flights had been made since February, mostly near Havana and Santiago de Cuba.

Experts said that unlike normal secret intelligence operations, in this case it seems that the Americans actually want the flights to be visible to the eye, as part of an attempt to deter and exert psychological pressure on the Cuban leadership and also on its allies, Russia and China.

According to American officials who spoke with the New York Times, the ultimate goal of Trump and the Secretary of State and National Security Advisor Marco Rubio is to bring an end to communist control in Cuba, but without pushing the country into total chaos. Even so, in Cuba they warn that continued American pressure could lead to “bloodshed”. The Cuban Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, Carlos Fernandez de Cosio, claimed that this was a “well thought out threat strategy”.