Lula da Silva breaks the technical tie and surpasses Flávio Bolsonaro in a possible second electoral round in Brazil

According to the data from the latest survey by the Quaest firm, the current social democratic president registered 44% of voting intentions compared to 38% for the far-right presidential candidate, thereby recovering the lead that the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro had achieved in April.

The current head of state had a ten-point advantage in December over the Liberal Party (PL) candidate, which was later reduced to seven in January, to five in February, until being technically tied during the firm’s last three polls, amid a drop in popularity and rumors about a possible step aside in his candidacy, which were not confirmed.

The new result shows progress for Lula compared to the disclosure in May, when both were in a tie within the margin of error, with the current president at 42% and the PL representative at 41% in an eventual second round, which would take place in November.

This survey is the first published by Quaest after the local press revealed the controversial connection between Flávio Bolsonaro and a banker imprisoned on suspicion of corruption.

The ‘Intercept Brazil’ portal revealed that the far-right candidate negotiated with Daniel Vorcaro, a banker who is now in preventive detention accused of a million-dollar fraud, to obtain a large sponsorship destined to produce a film about his father.

Flávio Bolsonaro himself confirmed the facts, but stressed that the operation was completely legal and that he did not offer compensation to Vorcaro for financial support.

In this regard, 60% of those surveyed stated that the conversations between the senator and Vorcaro raise suspicions of illegal attitudes, in contrast to 19% who considered the dialogue as normal.

Likewise, 65% believed that the former president’s son was wrong and should have avoided that contact, while 17% maintained that he was right to seek financing and that there is nothing wrong with his behavior.

In the scenario stipulated for the first round, Lula, who aspires to a fourth non-consecutive term, maintains the leadership of the race with 39% of the support, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro, who concentrates 29%.

For the survey, 2,004 people were interviewed between June 5 and 8, with a margin of error of two percentage points and a confidence level of 95%.