WASHINGTON — Vice President JD Vance on Thursday defended the preliminary agreement to stop the war with Iran as a “victory for the American people.”
However, it was based in part on a series of ambitious claims, vague and misleading about the agreement.
Vance, speaking from the White House, sought to counter criticism that the deal would reward and embolden Iran without ensuring the United States would achieve key goals set by President Donald Trump at the start of the conflict.
The vice president said Iran would gain little if it did not agree to American demands in the next phase of negotiations, which will involve its nuclear program.
Late Thursday, the White House announced that Vance had postponed his trip to Switzerland to negotiate with Iran, raising uncertainty about the next phase of talks to end the conflict.
During the press conference, Vance stated that he did not know if he would travel to Switzerland on Friday for negotiations.
It’s unclear when Vance might reschedule his trip.
The deal, which reopened the Strait of Hormuz, appeared to provide some economic relief to Americans on Thursday as oil and gas prices fell to levels not seen since the early days of the war.
Vance highlighted this fact as he continued to play an increasingly prominent role as an advocate for the agreement.
“We have everything to win,” said Vance, adding:
“If they change their behavior, important things will happen for Iran and for the world. If they don’t, it won’t affect us at all.”
But he sought to divert attention from the text of the memorandum of understanding released by both sides on Wednesday, which appeared to give Iran a number of immediate benefits.
Instead, he focused on what he insisted would be a favorable outcome for the United States in the next round of negotiations for a final agreement.
“Words don’t matter, ladies and gentlemen,” Vance said. “What matters to us is verification.”
Below, a look at the vice president’s main arguments in favor of the agreement.
oil sales
Vance said that an immediate concession in the memorandum of understanding — the lifting of oil sanctions on Iran — was “not a new benefit” for the country.
This claim ignores how economic sanctions in place before the war forced Iran to resort to desperate methods to sell oil.
The sanctions forced Iran to sell its oil at a steep discount to market prices, primarily to refiners in China that were willing to risk violating U.S. sanctions.
Now, thanks to the preliminary agreement reached with the United States, Iran will be able to sell its oil at a higher price and to a wider range of buyers.
Additionally, you will receive payment in more attractive currencies.
Vance was right that lifting the US blockade on Iranian oil would allow the country’s exports to return to pre-war levels—provided it still had the production capacity to do so—so Iran was unlikely to sell substantially more oil than before the fighting began, at least initially.
nuclear program
In the memo, Iran reiterated its long-standing commitment not to develop nuclear weapons, a guarantee that the United States and its allies have long considered virtually meaningless.
However, the deal does not resolve the question of whether Iran will retain the right to enrich uranium, something Tehran has long demanded.
The document is vague about whether Iran will be able to maintain uranium reserves once the final agreement comes into force.
Vance expressed confidence that the final agreement would include clauses supporting Trump’s goal of ensuring that Iran cannot possess nuclear weapons, and that Iran would not benefit from the changes promised in the memorandum if it does not comply with U.S. demands.
“They have promised not to enrich uranium, they have promised to allow inspectors access to destroy that highly enriched stockpile,” Vance added.
“For this reason, the agreement includes a series of benefits if they fulfill those promises, but it is of no use if they do not fulfill them.”
It’s notable that the deal does not stipulate the future of high- and low-grade uranium stockpiles, especially since Trump has said the 2015 Obama-era Iran deal rewarded Tehran financially while phasing out the country’s enrichment limits.
The only paragraph of Trump’s preliminary agreement that addresses the nuclear program requires Iran to reduce its enriched nuclear content — that is, dilute it — by its approximately 11 tons, including 440 kilograms enriched to 60%, a percentage close to what is needed to make atomic bombs.
However, it does not require Iran to hand over such material or export it from the country.
Under the Obama-era deal, Iran sent approximately 97% of its reservations to Russia.
Vance continued to argue that Iran was unlikely to rebuild its nuclear program without getting “a lot of money.”
Financial benefits
The memorandum commits the United States to support the creation of a fund reconstruction of 300,000 million dollars for Iran, and opens the door to the unfreezing of billions of dollars in frozen Iranian assets located around the world.
The memorandum also calls for the lifting of a series of international sanctions that have crippled Iran’s economy for yearssubject to an agreement on the final pact.
Critics have said the memorandum amounts to a gift, with no guarantee that the United States will receive anything in return.
Vance stressed that the United States would not contribute money to the reconstruction fund.
He explained that Iran could only benefit economically from the agreement if it fully complied with the conditions that the United States might demand as part of the final agreement, and if it decided to change its behavior.
But the memo states that the United States will unfreeze the assets and release the restricted funds “once this memorandum of understanding is implemented.”
ballistic missiles
The preliminary agreement does not mention the program limitation of Iran’s ballistic missiles, one of Israel’s main concerns and a goal set by Israeli government officials at the beginning of the war.
Iran’s missile program has allowed it to hit targets throughout the region, including Israeli territory.
When asked about the issue, Vance repeated Trump’s claim that it was impossible to tell a country that it could not defend itself.
This marks a radical turn for an administration that in March described the destruction of Iran’s ballistic missiles as one of the goals of the war.
“The United States is conducting an operation to eliminate the threat of short-range ballistic missiles from Iran,” the Secretary of State declared then, Marco Rubio.
According to US intelligence estimates, that objective was not achieved in the first two months of the war.
While Vance also claimed Thursday that much of the Iranian military had been “destroyed,” a classified US intelligence report estimated that Iran retained about 70% of its pre-war missile arsenal as of last month.
Vance argued that the total number of missiles was less important than the status of the launchers.
However, Iran continues to demonstrate that it can launch missiles, and its Gulf neighbors have felt threatened enough to urge the United States to sign the peace agreement.
Challenging Israel
Vance seemed determined to respond to criticism from Israeli lawmakers, who echoed some Republicans in Washington in arguing that the deal provided economic relief to Iran and did not address the country’s nuclear program.
Vance issued a strong warning to Israelis, especially members of the prime minister’s cabinet Benjamin Netanyahu who have attacked Trump.
«Donald J. Trump “He is the only head of state in the entire world who sympathizes with the nation of Israel at this time,” Vance said.
“If I were part of the Israeli government cabinet, I probably wouldn’t be attacking my only powerful ally left in the world.”
Vance also noted support for the deal from other Gulf nations, while attempting to divert journalists’ attention from criticism of Israel.
“I think you have to trust those who know the Iranians best and those who have the most to lose,” Vance said.
“What do the Gulf Arab states think about this agreement?”
However, analysts say officials in the region are deeply frustrated by the deal, particularly because it does not address the problem of the Iranian missile system that has hit airports, energy facilities, hotels and military installations in the region.
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