Marine Le Pen and the presidential future (after the trial): what can happen

The former RN president, in fact, was found guilty of misappropriation of public funds in relation to the fictitious positions of European parliamentary assistants and sentenced on 31 March 2025 in the first instance by the Paris court to four years in prison (two to be served with an electronic bracelet and two with probation), a fine of 100 thousand euros and five years of ineligibility with immediate execution.

“I will fight for my ideas”

While waiting to hear the decision of the appeal judges, Le Pen declared on Lci that she was not afraid. “Whatever happens I will not be dead. Whatever happens I will continue to fight for my ideas.” However, there is less than a year left until the first round of the presidential elections, on 18 April 2027, and if the hypotheses regarding the conclusion of the judicial proceedings against him are different, above all the consequences are different.

The hypothesis of acquittal – considered unlikely by many – would be an immediate relief for the RN group leader at the Assemblée Nationale, who would become eligible again and free herself from the burden of a criminal conviction. On the contrary, a sentence of more than two years of ineligibility (part of which has passed) would compromise his candidacy for the Elysée. Confirming the lower court’s decision, the Attorney General’s Office also requests five-year confirmation on appeal. Unless this is reduced to a maximum of two years, Le Pen cannot hope to run for president.

“I will only run if I have freedom to move”

Another element to consider is that of a prison sentence to be served with an electronic bracelet. If the court of appeal accepts the prosecutor’s request and requests one year of detention, sentence to be served under house arrest, the Pas-de-Calais deputy would give up running.

It is “not possible” to campaign with the electronic bracelet, Le Pen reiterated on Wednesday. “If I can run, I will run, as long as I can campaign”, he declared, explaining that “When you’re running for president, you have to be completely free to move.” and that this is not possible if you wear an electronic bracelet. “If the goal is to allow me to run, but actually prevent me from campaigning in complete freedom, you understand that this will not be possible,” he added. A six-month sentence, however, would open up a more uncertain debate within the Rassemblement National. With the sentence reductions, Marine Le Pen could hope to regain full freedom of movement as early as the beginning of October, around six months before the presidential elections.

Another unknown concerns the appeal to the Supreme Court. Marine Le Pen has already warned that she will not wait for a possible decision from the Court of Cassation before deciding on her candidacy. The Supreme Court judges have indicated that, if they were to hear the case, their decision would come by early January. For Le Pen this timescale would be too long to actually start her election campaign, even if her conviction were overturned by the Supreme Court.

However, the most complex case regarding the decision on appeal on 7 July remains that of the provisional execution, or immediate application, of the two-year ban from holding public office. Because on paper, this scenario could allow her to run: if the provisional execution order issued at first instance – and fiercely contested by the RN – were confirmed, and the ineligibility sentence dropped to two years, it would end on 1 April 2027, shortly before the first electoral round.

Marine Le Pen’s interest would therefore be to ensure that her sentence becomes final and is served as quickly as possible. She could also renounce her appeal to the Supreme Court, because an appeal would suspend her sentence and therefore extend the already tight deadline: although on 7 July – with the suspension – Le Pen would become eligible again, she would risk losing her eligibility again in January if her appeal were rejected by the Court of Cassation, right in the middle of the presidential election campaign.

The difficulties do not end here, because the prosecutor’s office can also appeal to the Court of Cassation, which would in turn suspend the sentence. Marine Le Pen may therefore have to wait for the ten-day deadline granted to the parties to expire to find out whether the situation will be resolved or not. Finally, there is a legal controversy regarding the effects of an enforcement order issued at first instance but not confirmed on appeal. Some legal experts, based on rare rulings of the Court of Cassation in other cases, believe that this provision can continue to have effect. According to this interpretation, an appeal to the Supreme Court by Marine Le Pen or the prosecutor’s office would no longer suspend the sentence.

The final decision would therefore fall to the Constitutional Court, the only body competent to validate candidacies in presidential elections. Several of its members have already intimated that they have clarified one point: eligibility is assessed on election day. In other words, it does not matter if a candidate is not eligible at the time of collecting or presenting the 500 signatures in support of him, as long as he is eligible in the first round.