Economist Daniel Graeber from the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) does not expect that the tightening of sick leave planned by the Union and SPD will noticeably reduce sickness rates in Germany. A requirement to provide a certificate from the first day of illness could instead lead to more visits to the practice and increase the risk of infection in waiting rooms. “If this leads to people going to work despite mild infections, infections at work could ultimately lead to more days of absence than if these employees had simply stayed at home,” warns Graeber.
Graeber does not see a causal connection between the high levels of sickness in recent years and the possibility of taking sick leave over the telephone since the end of 2023. Analyzes based on data from the Barmer health insurance company provide no evidence of an increase in cases of incapacity to work due to telephone or video sick notes. The proportion of telephone or video sick notes was only around 0.8 to 1.2 percent of all certificates of incapacity for work, he said.
Mental illness is also the reason for many days of absence
Other factors are more important, such as the more complete recording of sickness reports, strong waves of infection and longer-lasting illnesses since the introduction of the electronic certificate of incapacity for work (eAU). In 2024, long-term illnesses lasting more than six weeks would have caused around 40 percent of all days absent, even though they only made up a small proportion of sick reports. This often involves musculoskeletal and mental illnesses. Health prevention would help more here, says Graeber.
According to a YouGov survey, the coalition plans also tend to be rejected by the population. Accordingly, 59 percent of those surveyed are against an obligation to present a certificate of incapacity for work from the first day of illness, and 31 percent welcome it. 58 percent reject the planned abolition of telephone sick leave for minor illnesses, 33 percent support it. 6,200 adults in Germany were interviewed for the representative survey.
DGB: Measures lead to less productivity
Criticism also comes from the German Federation of Trade Unions (DGB). DGB board member Anja Piel warned in the newspapers of the Funke media group that the obligation to work from day one could promote presenteeism – i.e. working despite illness. This has negative consequences such as less productivity and more chronic illnesses. The combination of compulsory medical certificates from day one and the abolition of telephone sick notes also “leads directly to the overload of all medical practices in the country,” said Piel.
The Union and the SPD had agreed in the coalition committee to require employees to submit a certificate of incapacity for work from the first day of illness. At the same time, telephone sick leave is to be abolished again. Both projects are still to be fleshed out in the legislative process. Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU) justified the tightening by saying that the number of sick days in Germany was too high. One cannot accept “exorbitant” sick leave.
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