USA and Iran: Understand the risk of war and the Strait of Hormuz

What caused the end of the ceasefire between the two countries?

The understanding, known as the Islamabad Memorandum, was short-lived because of renewed attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran wants to control shipping routes in the area, while the US advocates free passage. Trump stated that negotiating with the Iranian regime is a ‘waste of time’ and defended drastic measures to contain what he called a ‘cancer’.

Why is the Strait of Hormuz so important?

Imagine a narrow street where almost everything the neighborhood consumes passes through. The Strait of Hormuz is like this for the world: around 20% of the planet’s oil and natural gas transits through it. Whoever controls this ‘bottleneck’ has the power to suffocate the global economy, increasing fuel prices and generating crises in several countries.

What were the immediate military reactions?

After the US bombed Iranian targets to secure navigation, Iran retaliated by attacking American bases in Bahrain and Kuwait. The Iranian government claims that this is just the initial ‘overwhelming response’ and that it will not accept interference in the management of the strait, defining its own rules for anyone who wants to pass through there.

What is Kharg Island mentioned in the conflict?

Kharg Island is the economic heart of Iran. Around 90% of the country’s oil exports depend on terminals located on this island. Trump suggested that the US could seize the site, which would be a mortal blow to the Islamic regime’s finances and, consequently, its ability to finance allied groups in the region.

Is there a chance of the situation being resolved without an all-out war?

Experts indicate that, despite the aggressive rhetoric, there is an economic brake. An open war would close Hormuz once and for all, causing the price of oil to soar, which Trump wants to avoid so as not to damage his image internally. The tendency is for there to be days of high tension and specific attacks before a new and fragile agreement to suspend hostilities is attempted.