From exporter to importer: Russia’s historic fuel crisis is coming to a head

The situation has now completely turned around due to the success of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil depots, oil tankers in the Sea of ​​Azov and refineries. The result is production downtime, supply bottlenecks and price spikes at the pumps. The raw materials power Russia is experiencing a historic fuel crisis and is changing from an exporter to an importer.

Reluctantly, but nevertheless, has himself Wladimir Putin We had already admitted supply bottlenecks about a week ago. “There are queues at gas stations, the types of gasoline we need are not always in stock,” Putin said at a crisis meeting with oil producers.

In view of kilometre-long queues at petrol stations across the country and especially in Crimea, which has been annexed since 2014, a ban on diesel exports has now been imposed. It follows the corresponding export bans on gasoline (since April) and kerosene (since June).

Also the Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Nowak justified the move in a televised government meeting with the tense situation on the domestic market. The situation at the gas stations is causing concern for the population, said Nowak.

In order to improve the supply situation, Moscow has no choice but to import gasoline and diesel from Belarus, Kazakhstan or by sea from India, says Russia expert Vasily Astrov from the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies. “This is of course not optimal, but it is the only short-term solution for Moscow. Refinery capacities are already very severely limited at up to 50 percent,” the expert tells KURIER.

It is difficult to assess what Moscow’s export ban will mean for fuel prices in Austria.

It has no impact on supply since Austria no longer imports diesel directly from Russia. Indirectly via the global market – less supply due to Russia’s failure, strong demand due to the slumps as a result of the Middle East crisis – prices can also be expected to rise in Austria. Diesel prices and margins have risen sharply in the short term on European trading centers such as Rotterdam.

Nevertheless, Astrov assumes that gas station prices in Austria will be more influenced by developments in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz than by the situation in Russia. The price of crude oil has fallen slightly despite the renewed escalation in the Gulf. Markets expect negotiations between Washington and Tehran to resume soon.