Oil skyrocketing: OPEC cuts estimates, Hormuz is blocked

For the third consecutive month, OPEC has reduced its global oil demand growth forecast for 2026. A cut by around 190 thousand barrels per day, which brings overall growth projections for this year to around 780 thousand barrels per day. “We see an OPEC in trouble compared to the world oil scene” Michele Marsiglia, president of Federpetroli, told Adnkronos. Members of the organization have been forced to decrease crude oil production due to the ongoing conflict in Iran, but countries not compromised by the war zone are slowly starting to increase production. Brent recorded a daily price increase of 4%, after the surge of almost 10% recorded in yesterday’s session, with an average price per barrel around 85 dollars. Due to truces and ceasefires not being respected, the situation in Hormuz is similar to that of the first days of the war: “Nothing has been done, nothing has been reopened”. Between 18 June and 4 July the average transit through the Strait was around fifteen ships. After the attacks recorded in recent days, passages have dropped drastically: “We are talking about 4, maximum 5 vessels, most of them merchant vessels. They are not oil tankers and we cannot say that the price of crude oil is falling”. OPEC’s decision to cut production estimates could also have resulted from a Hormuz on standby

Attacks against tankers also block insurance, potentially blocking transit. Maritime insurance contracts allow the blocking of policies: “If the war risk is no longer insured, the situation becomes even more stagnant” Marseille points out, and even in the event of a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz “some ships could remain stationary, unable to navigate”. US President Donald Trump’s proposal to use US forces as “guardians” of Hormuz in exchange for a 20% toll on the value of each shipment of oil and goods in transit to cover security costs does not improve the situation. “In this type of economy we are used to tolls, but if at today’s prices a load costs double, the goods remain stagnant” the number one of the federation cuts short.

Not only that. The United States “now has little credibility – Marseille insists -. The vessels remain stationary even if the US reiterates the reopening of Hormuz. Until the economy of the Straits or the Persian Gulf really moves, no economic assessment can be made”. A situation that benefits Americans. Despite no crude coming out of the Persian Gulf, many countries have turned to the United States to meet their oil needs.

“We are in an oil economy that is no longer sustainable” the president finally warns. 350 million barrels of crude oil are missing from stocks, the estimate for September is tragic, we are talking about 900 million. Another issue to be resolved is the ability to put the affected refining infrastructure back into operation. Qatar and Saudi Arabia had already warned that returning to full capacity would take years. “We purchase product, but at a price that is not advantageous to save a nation’s supply. The margins will be seen on the bills of Italian families in the coming months, if not the next few weeks” he concludes.