OPEC+ increases its supply by another 188,000 barrels per day starting in September

As with the first two layers, many OPEC+ nations would find it difficult to reactivate much of the latter, given the deterioration of their capacity in recent years. Even before the war forced Gulf producers to shut down production, the vast majority of the alliance’s idle capacity was in the hands of Saudi Arabia.

Russia, for example, has been pumping significantly below its permitted level for some time as it struggles with sanctions imposed following its invasion of Ukraine, data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) indicates.

Kazakhstan has been forced to reduce production amid a series of attacks on ships loading oil at or near the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal on Russia’s Black Sea coast, which handles around 80% of Kazakhstan’s crude exports. In any case, the country has systematically failed to meet its OPEC+ quota, limiting the relevance of any increase in its formal target.