‘Russian Starlink’ begins to cover Ukrainian territory

Volodymyr Stepanets, a Ukrainian satellite communications expert, said that the satellites of the Rassvet project of the Russian company Byuro 1440 have completed their deployment in orbit. As of July 31, a total of 12 satellites had reached an operating altitude of 550 km, three were raising altitude and one had fallen back to Earth, suspected to be due to a manufacturing error.

“We can see that a satellite network with effective coverage has been formed, ensuring uninterrupted connection throughout Ukraine at least twice a day, each lasting an hour. The actual number is even higher, when the satellite chain can fly over certain areas with an interval of about 1 and a half hours,” Stepanets said.

Data from tracking site N2YO shows that Rassvet satellites fly over the area with a direct line of sight over Ukraine four times a day. However, only 2-3 of these are high enough above the horizon to maintain a stable connection with the ground station.

During each flight over Ukrainian territory, lasting 1-1.5 hours, the Rassvet system can create a stable “connection window”, allowing Russian forces to use the terminal to communicate, control unmanned boats, suicide drones (UAVs) and reconnaissance.

Russian military website Topwar said on August 2 that it is too early to confirm that Rassvet can completely replace Starlink on the battlefield. The small number of devices and operating on a fixed cycle can help Ukraine cope by deploying maximum electronic warfare systems to jam when satellites fly over, instead of having to spread resources around the clock.

In addition, only units that have received terminals can use this system and it has not been widely deployed. Rassvet is still in its infancy and not all satellites are operating normally, while the Byuro 1440 company has not released complete information about the problems.

“With Rassvet’s current way of operating, the Russian military can use an intermittent operating model. The UAV will still position itself, choose a route and identify targets. When the connection area covers Ukraine, the operator will receive images from the UAV and send additional commands such as avoiding air defense positions, confirming targets or attacking,” Topwar commented.

Russia launched the first series of 16 Rassvet satellites into orbit in March and the second series at the end of July. If the deployment takes place at a similar pace, the satellites in the second batch are expected to be operational in October-November and provide two more “connectivity windows”.

Byuro 1440 plans to commercialize the Rassvet system next year. According to Russian sources, the company plans to increase the number of satellites to 250 by 2027, 730 satellites by 2030 and more than 900 systems by 2035. This roadmap requires Russia to launch 16 satellites per month, while the current frequency is every 4 months.

According to Ukrainian experts, Russia can launch the fourth series of Rassvet satellites in March 2027 and ensure 24/7 coverage across the entire territory of Ukraine by the middle of next year. They warn that this could have serious consequences for the Ukrainian army if there are no effective countermeasures.

Rassvet is nicknamed “Russia’s Starlink”, because this system was developed to replace the satellite Internet service developed by SpaceX. The terminal in the Rassvet system uses an antenna similar to Starlink, which can determine the satellite position and maintain the link without manual adjustment.

These devices have a weight of less than 15 kg, a side length of about 60 cm, can maintain a connection with a bandwidth of up to 1 Gbit/s, and operate in temperature conditions -40°C to 40°C. Starlink’s highest powered antenna weighs nearly 12 kg with side lengths of 51 and 57.5 cm.