A series of days of insecurity before the US withdrew all bombers from the UK

President Donald Trump announced on October 5 that the US had withdrawn all strategic bombers stationed at Fairford military airport in the UK, citing “threats related to Iran”. He also warned that the enemy would “suffer severe consequences” if the base was attacked.

The specific number of aircraft has not been disclosed, but open source data shows that there are 12 B-1B Lancer strategic bombers present at the Fairford base, some of which have just deployed here within the previous few days. The request to withdraw forces was so urgent that some bombers had to leave before the tanker planes, whose mission was to support the squadron’s return to the US, could take off.

This is the culmination of a series of days of insecurity in the UK, stemming from concerns that Iran may target US bases in European countries.

Vague warnings

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in July warned that Britain would be responsible for allowing the US to use Fairford military airport. “All bases serving attacks against Iran are legal targets,” the IRGC stated.

According to US officials familiar with the situation, the country’s military commanders in mid-September received “worrying warnings” from Western intelligence that the Fairford base was a potential target for an Iran-backed attack. Some assessments suggest that it is possible that drones will be used to attack this facility.

However, the information is still general and analysts cannot determine the time or specific details about the mastermind.

Strange signs also began to appear at that time. Local residents saw a man wearing a hood running through the village near the Fairford base on the evening of September 16. At least three other people also saw a man dressed in black and wearing a hood, but it is unclear whether they were referring to the same person.

An Iran-backed news site on September 23 published a statement by Yahya Safavi, a former IRGC commander who is working as a military advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader, which named the bases the US used to attack Iran including Fairford in the UK, Ramstein in Germany and Aviano in Italy.

Officials in many countries can do almost nothing but tighten security and wait, because there is no specific information about the target or time of action.

The conspiracy has not yet emerged

On the night of September 26, a local farmer returning from a party discovered 3 pickup trucks blocking the entrance to his house, with “8-10 masked men running away”. At 1:36 a.m. on September 27, the woman called the police emergency line and believed that she had “disrupted the plot of a group of suspicious people.”

British officials said the call showed signs of an ongoing terrorist plot, which was mentioned in intelligence information nearly two weeks earlier.

Police quickly mobilized a rapid response team to the scene and arrested 5 people and 3 white vans near Whelford village, just a few hundred meters from the Fairford base. This group was accused of violating regulations on explosives and was “suspected of preparing terrorist acts”.

Residents in 85 houses had to evacuate, while officials dispatched specialized robots to the scene to check the cars.

British anti-terrorism police said on September 29 that they found gasoline in the drums, but no explosive devices were found when searching the above vehicles. Five people were also released after more than a day of detention, while British police have enough legal authority to hold terrorist suspects for up to 2 weeks.

Officials are trying to determine the role of the five men and the possibility that they were used to undermine the decision for the US to use military bases on British territory. A British official even described them as “fools who were taken advantage of without knowing it”.

Published documents show that one of the suspects called the emergency line at 00:45, nearly 50 minutes before the farmer, for unknown reasons.

Some British intelligence officials believe that the suspect’s call early on the morning of September 27 was intended to distract the police while a larger plot was taking place. Many people raised the possibility that the five suspects belonged to a low-level group, one of whom called to report when he discovered he had been hired to commit a serious act.

Laurence Taylor, head of the British police’s anti-terrorism agency, said this is a complicated matter. “This threat often manifests itself in the form of criminal acts. They are often small-scale, the perpetrators do not intend to terrorize, but instead to make quick money,” he said.

Many questions were raised, such as whether this was a diversion from the real attack being planned, whether these people were stopped before they could connect with their accomplices, or whether the whole incident was a sophisticated stage to instill fear.

While the truth of the incident has not been clarified, the US suddenly withdrew the entire B-1B fleet from the Fairford base on October 4.

New York Times quoting two US officials, the Pentagon made the decision after commanders received information about “new threats, related to an Iran-backed plot” targeting the base. The information is part of a series of warnings that have appeared since mid-September, but the specifics and urgency have increased sharply in the previous 24 hours, worrying commanders.

Future risks

Head of the British Security Agency (MI5) Ken McCallum in 2024 warned of the possibility of “Iran using criminals as proxy forces, from international drug traffickers to petty thieves.”

This is not the first time Iran has been accused of being behind attacks or sabotage against US and allied forces in areas thousands of kilometers away from the front lines.

When he was British Prime Minister, Mr. Keir Starmer once refused to let the US use the Fairford base to attack Iran. However, on March 1, Mr. Starmer agreed to let the US take action that he considered “defensive”, allowing B-52 and B-1B bombers to take off from the Fairford base to participate in the campaign to attack Iran.

After the decision was announced, four ambulances belonging to a volunteer group in the Jewish community in London were burned, and several synagogues were also firebombed in the middle of the night. These activities are said to demonstrate Iran’s proxy forces are willing to target more diverse targets in the UK.

Harakat Ashab al-Yamin al-Islamia, also known as Hayi, claimed responsibility for the above attacks. According to US prosecutors, Hayi is a front organization for Kataib Hezbollah, one of the strongest Iran-backed militia groups in Iraq and listed as a terrorist group by the US.

Tehran has so far denied accusations related to the above incidents.