A discomfort that falls at the worst time. For several days, the state of health of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been at the heart of speculation in Turkey, after a curious interruption of an interview with the Head of State on television, and two days of canceled meetings. Concerns that undermine the politician, in the middle of the campaign for his re-election as head of the country.
What happened ?
On Tuesday, on Turkish channels Ulke TV and Kanal 7, President Erdogan, 69, had to interrupt his interview after ten minutes – an interview which had started more than 90 minutes late. It is difficult to know what exactly happened: when the incident occurred, the camera was aimed at the journalist questioning Erdogan. The interviewer then rose from his chair before the broadcast was cut.
Fifteen minutes later, President Erdogan returned apologizing for being ill. “Yesterday and today, there was a lot of work. Because of that, I got the stomach flu,” he explained, his face tired, his eyes watering. “At one point, I wondered if it would be bad if we canceled the show. But we promised. I ask for your forgiveness and that of your audience”. The Turkish leader then answered a few more questions before the show ended.
What has Erdogan done since?
Since then, the president has canceled his commitments and public trips for three days, saying he wants to “rest at home”, on the advice of his doctors. On the other hand, Erdogan reappeared live on television this Thursday, by videoconference, from the presidential palace, for the inauguration of Turkey’s first nuclear power plant. He plans to do the same this Friday, for the inauguration of a bridge in the south of the country.
At this stage, the Turkish presidency has not specified when and if the president will resume his campaign on the ground.
What are the speculations about his health?
From Tuesday’s incident on Turkish television, rumors swirled on social networks, insinuating that the head of state was suffering from a more serious illness than a stomach flu, such as heart problems. “We categorically reject such unfounded claims regarding President Erdogan’s health,” tweeted Fahrettin Altun, the communications director of the Turkish presidency.
The health of the Turkish leader had already fueled speculation after a large intestine operation at the end of 2011, followed by further surgery the following year. Then Prime Minister, Erdogan publicly denied suffering from colon cancer, explaining that the operations aimed to remove polyps, benign tumors in the colon area.
An incident at the worst time
This incident falls badly for Erdogan, who is campaigning for the presidential election scheduled for May 14. In power since 2003, first as Prime Minister and then as President, he faces an opposition advancing as a united front.
His main opponent, Kemal Kiliçdaroglu, at the head of an alliance bringing together six opposition parties, held two meetings on Thursday. Given a good position by most opinion polls, Kiliçdaroglu received the tacit support of the pro-Kurdish HDP party, considered the kingmaker of the presidential election.
To thwart the polls, the head of state intended to line up two to three daily meetings in the home stretch before the elections, after having shared during the month of Ramadan the fast-breaking meal in a different locality each evening.
A tactic well tested by the Head of State, according to Didier Billion, deputy director of the Institute of International and Strategic Relations (Iris) and specialist in Turkey. “During the last two electoral campaigns, presidential and legislative, Erdogan has shown exceptional vitality for a man of his age. In general, he conducts his political campaigns at full speed, he is able to hold two or three meetings a day, it’s quite dynamic. »
With this incident, the image of the dynamic president-candidate is however likely to crumble, continues Didier Billion. “Erdogan was built on a virile character, capable of facing all situations, presenting himself as the only one capable in Turkey of defending the interests of the country attacked from all sides. There is all this mythology of the providential man”, develops the specialist. How to sway the ballot? “If his inability to campaign was confirmed in the days or two weeks that remain to us, that would change the political situation”, replies Didier Billion. “We are obviously not there yet. »