For the time being, the sources explain that there is no chance of bringing about a change in Putin’s position regarding the war or in relation to any conduct with the West. To date, Putin has been careful to respond to any opposition that has arisen in his immediate circles, with reports of hundreds of senior administration and security forces being removed from office and arrested. The feeling now among his associates is that he is still unwilling to hear any criticism of the heavy economic damage to Russia since the start of the war, or of the political and political price that Russia in general and he in particular are paying for its dramatic decisions.
Some of those sources have expressed concerns similar to those voiced in recent weeks in the West and among U.S. intelligence sources that Putin may degenerate into a situation where he chooses to use nuclear weapons following the development of the war and the conflict with NATO, even if only partially used. That he has failed to achieve the objectives of the war and to meet what he defines as his “historic mission,” so he is more likely to choose an extreme means like a nucleus.
For the avoidance of doubt, at this point it seems that support for Putin is certainly high, with senior officials in the Kremlin and the Russian defense establishment making public and in closed conversations statements that correspond with Russia’s narrative from the beginning of the war quite clearly. Those same sources make it clear that the confrontation with the West is inevitable for Russia, and that they estimate that the Russian economy will make the necessary adjustments and recover until the sanctions on Russia and its allies are lifted. They also make it clear that in the face of heavy sanctions, Russia is succeeding in forging a new and stable path.
Despite all this, more and more senior officials are beginning to express concern that Putin’s commitment to continue its invasion of Ukraine is hurting Russia and imposing long years of international isolation on it. In addition, they estimate that sanctions from the West will fatally harm the Russian economy and anticipate that over time serious damage will be done to Russia’s national security and its global influence. So far, some senior businessmen have dared to go against the Russian campaign in Ukraine and its effects on the country, but most Russian citizens are very afraid to voice their concerns in public.
Many Russian citizens, including Kremlin officials who were interviewed anonymously, expressed great surprise at the speed and intensity of the West’s response to Russia’s decision to invade Ukraine, imposing heavy sanctions on the Russian economy and freezing $ 640 billion in bank accounts. According to them, decades of investment have gone down the drain overnight, and they say the fact that the West is providing military and logistical support to Ukraine’s fighting effort is also a big surprise and no less than a tiebreaker in the campaign so far.
Many Moscow officials tried to explain to Putin immediately after the imposition of the sanctions their acute impact, which is expected to be devastating to the economy and erase more than 20 years of economic growth and eliminate the relatively high standard of living that has developed in Russia since the fall of the Soviet Union. Putin reportedly rejected all warnings, saying that while Russia would pay a heavy price, the West left him no choice. As is well known, Putin often says that the “economic blitzkrieg” on Russia has failed and the Russian economy continues to develop.
It is estimated that Putin continues to be confident that the Russian people support him and are behind him, and that the Russians are ready for many years of sacrifice for the sake of their president’s perception of national glory. His perception is strengthened by the fact that the ruble recovered from the slumps that characterized it at the beginning of the war, but they mention that this move was made possible after a series of harsh measures of intervention in the Russian economy. In Putin’s view, according to various sources, the damage to the Russian economy so far is quite limited – probably in relation to the estimates and expectations that have been heard so far.
It now appears that Putin is determined to reach the battlefield at all costs, including that of continuing to harm the Russian economy and Moscow’s status. Even after realizing that he had been denied the military success of a quick conquest of Kyiv and large parts of deep Ukraine, this week it became clear that he was not giving up the campaign in the east of the country with the opening of what was defined as the “second phase of the special operation”. In his view, according to various sources, giving up the military campaign and leaving it without real achievements and conquests will make it weak and vulnerable in the face of the United States and its allies in the West.
In the weeks since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, President Putin’s close circle of advisers has only narrowed – possibly due to criticism and possibly even the dismissal and arrest of senior officials. Two different sources claim that many of the advisers with whom Putin used to talk before the war are no longer part of a team close to him now. According to these reports, the Russian decision to start a war in Ukraine was made by Putin, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, Army Commander Valery Gersimov and Nikolai Petroshev, Secretary of the Russian Security Council.
Sources also point to the big problem Russia is facing in the decision-making process in Moscow, with more and more allegations of misinformation about what is happening on the battlefield – which often leads to decisions that are not in line with reality. They also highlight the size of the gap between Putin’s early assessment of the Ukrainian military’s capabilities and the Ukrainian people’s response to the invasion and the results on the ground that have so far shown high resilience, even though it comes at a huge cost.
The information that emerges from these things is no less unusual and extraordinary, and indicates a particularly problematic reality for Putin. If until now most of the reports about what was happening within the walls of the Kremlin came only from Western intelligence assessments – now they are receiving real reinforcement from senior internal sources. It is difficult to estimate that these things are even close to affecting the war reality in Ukraine and the political situation in Moscow, but they certainly indicate that Putin’s situation is far from good, despite his many attempts to broadcast it.