The fear in Lebanon of the expansion of fighting – and the consequences: “There may be a regional explosion”

The clock is ticking in Beirut and this time, they fear that immunity is no longer guaranteed. Against the background of the escalating exchange of fire between Israel and Hezbollah, an official in the Land of Cedars warned today (Wednesday) that the mechanisms that have so far stopped attacks on the capital may lose their effectiveness. At the same time, Hezbollah is threatening to thwart any attempt to create a security strip – but in Lebanon they are warning that the FPV drones are changing the rules of the game and bringing the arena closer to a boiling point.

An official source in Lebanon told the Lebanese newspaper Nidaa al-Watan that there is a fear of developments in the situation in southern Lebanon, against the background of the continued escalation between Israel and Hezbollah – something that foreshadows the expansion of the scope of the conflict and its departure from the area of ​​the border areas. On the other hand, the Lebanese state is still calm in the face of the American guarantees that prevent Israel from attacking Beirut and Dahiya, but these, according to the source, “may not last and may collapse at any moment.”

The Lebanese source clarified that no official position has been published regarding the talks in Washington and the meeting between Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, and noted that logic requires that such a meeting come as a signing of an agreement – and not before it.

At the heart of the political system in Lebanon is growing helplessness. It was reported in the Lebanese newspaper that the Speaker of the Parliament, Nabia Berri, is not satisfied with the developments and finds himself lacking initiative. On the one hand, Hezbollah does not respond to his direction, and on the other hand, he feels embarrassed in front of his Shiite environment. This, while he is following the disasters that befall his sect – against a background of fear of the worsening of the situation and the expansion of the scope of displacement.

While in Beirut they are trying to leave an opening for political moves, in Hezbollah they are escalating the tone and setting a red line. The Lebanese member of parliament on behalf of Hezbollah, Hassan Fadlallah, threatened: “We will thwart Israel’s attempt to establish a security zone. The government in Lebanon will not receive national backing for direct negotiations with the enemy, no matter how hard it tries.” He called on the country’s authorities to “immediately withdraw from the thought of concessions, because it threatens the stability of Lebanon.”

Even in the media arena associated with Hezbollah, the message is sharpened and aligned with the militant position of the organization. The Lebanese commentator Khalil Nasrallah, who is considered close to Hezbollah, joins the threats and sharpens the position that there is no room for compromises and any attempt to change the equation on the ground will be met with a response.

“Even if an agreement is signed with the Lebanese government – Hezbollah will not accept it and will continue to fight,” he said. “Israel is in a trap against Hezbollah, which continues to operate, restore and erode. The destruction does not lower its motivation – on the contrary.”

He linked the fate of Lebanon and Iran by saying: “Everything that happens in Lebanon is related to what will happen in Islamabad.” Khalil Nasrallah also warned that “if the situation remains tense – there may be a regional explosion. Things must be looked at at a strategic level, and not just through specific events. There are many indications, but the overall picture indicates that the key lies in the broad arena – not only in Lebanon.”

In view of the escalation and increased use of drones, a change in the way of fighting is also being recognized in Lebanon. Lebanese commentator Muhammad Shams focuses on the threat and presents it as a factor that shakes the battlefield, erodes the advantages of traditional superiority – and redefines the rules of conflict.

“The drones in South Lebanon are no longer just a means of fire support or an auxiliary component on the battlefield, but have become a central factor that reshapes the nature of the conflict and redefines the rules of the game,” he noted. “The FPV drones in particular have gone beyond the framework of limited tactical use and become a precise operational tool, which draws a new field equation based on precise hitting, low cost and speed of execution in a complex environment open to exhaustion,” Shams continued.

He explained that “this change makes any attempt to establish permanent military outposts in southern Lebanon difficult, as such outposts become exposed points that can be hit continuously and unexpectedly.”

According to Shams, “It is impossible to separate this development from the psychological dimension of the conflict. The small drones, the speed of movement and the difficulty of detection, create a state of vigilance and anxiety among the forces deployed in the field – because the threat becomes invisible but possible at any moment.” Shams believed that “this type of war exerts pressure on mental preparedness just as much as it exerts pressure on military capabilities, and turns the area into a space of complex exhaustion.”