The race to protect the Democratic Party’s ‘blue dot in the red sea’

Republican Congressman Don Bacon announced in July 2025 that he would retire and not run for a 6th term in this year’s midterm elections. This decision opens up a rare opportunity for the Democratic Party to win another seat in the House of Representatives, representing Electoral District No. 2 (NE-2) in the state of Nebraska.

NE-2 includes Omaha, Nebraska’s most populous city, and its suburbs. Despite its relatively small area, NE-2 has a large population and a significant concentration of voters across the state. In a context where the Republican Party only holds a narrow majority in the House of Representatives, the outcome of the race in NE-2 could affect the balance of congressional power.

Theo Reutersthe Republican and Democratic parties are holding 217 and 212 seats respectively in the House of Representatives. One independent congressman chose to support the Republican Party, while the remaining 5 seats are vacant, due to the incumbent’s death or resignation. Therefore, the Democrats only need three more seats to gain control of the House of Representatives.

‘A blue dot in a red sea’

Nebraska, including three electoral districts NE-1, NE-2 and NE-3, is considered a “red state”, a stronghold of the Republican Party since 1968. Only in 2008 did this state appear a “blue dot”, when candidate Barack Obama won in NE-2. The “green dot” appeared again in 2020, when Mr. Joe Biden represented the Democratic Party.

In 2024, Ms. Kamala Harris defeated Mr. Donald Trump with a difference of more than 4% in NE-2. This is one of three regions in the US that the Democratic presidential candidate won, but the House of Representatives seat representing NE-2 is still in the hands of the Republican candidate.

The political landscape in Omaha has now changed dramatically. In the city’s mayoral election in May 2025, voters turned away from Jean Stothert, a Republican, to vote for Mr. John Ewing, a Democrat. With Mr. Bacon’s retirement, the Democrats realized this was a “rare opportunity” to win the parliamentary seat representing NE-2.

6 candidates have announced their competition for the House of Representatives seat in NE-2. Among these, the most prominent are John Cavanaugh, a member of the Nebraska Senate, and political activist Denise Powell.

The Republican race only has candidate Brinker Harding, a member of the Omaha City Council backed by President Donald Trump. Mr. Harding is considered a measure of support for the White House boss in the area where he lost two consecutive elections.

“This region has not been this competitive in over 100 years,” Randy Adkins, a political science professor at the University of Nebraska, told Nebraska Public Media.

However, the competition within the Democrats does not only revolve around the question of who is capable of defeating the Republican opponent in November. The biggest controversy on the Democratic racetrack is which candidate can protect the “blue dot”.

Powell, co-founder of the Women Who Run Nebraska organization, built her election campaign around the message of protecting the “blue dot” and confronting Mr. Trump. In campaign ads, Powell describes herself as “a mom who is absolutely outraged” by the current political climate.

Ms. Powell said that if Cavanaugh wins election to the House of Representatives, he will have to leave his Nebraska Senate seat. At that time, state governor Jim Pillen, a Republican, could appoint a replacement conservative, helping Republicans consolidate the majority in the state legislature.

This could pave the way for Republicans to pass a series of conservative policies, from tightening abortion rights to changing Nebraska’s election laws. Nebraska can switch to a “winner takes all” system, meaning the candidate who wins the entire state will win all the electoral votes.

In the US presidential election, Nebraska currently applies the form of dividing electoral votes by electoral district. The state has 5 electoral votes, divided by two votes for the winner of the statewide popular vote. The remaining three votes are allocated to the winners in three constituencies including NE-1, NE-2 and NE-3. If this state switches to a “winner takes all” mechanism, the “green dot” in NE-2 will disappear.

“We fought so hard to get the ‘blue dot’. But if Cavanaugh enters Congress, everything could fall apart,” an ad supporting Ms. Powell warned.

Many political advocacy groups outside of Nebraska also poured money into this race. According to ad tracking company AdImpact, total advertising spending for the Nebraska primary election exceeded $6 million, an unusually high number.

EMILY’s List, a famous organization supporting female Democratic candidates, also joined in supporting Powell. The group called Cavanaugh’s campaign a “gift to the Republican MAGA faction.”

Meanwhile, Mr. Cavanaugh rejected all of his opponent’s arguments and said that Democrats were caught up in a campaign of fear.

“Obviously the Republicans know I am the strongest candidate for the general election. So they are trying to damage me,” he said.

Cavanaugh countered by calling Powell “Dark Money Denise,” a reference to her campaign’s heavy backing from outside donor groups.

Cavanaugh’s allies also believe that the risk of losing the “blue dot” is being overblown. Six Nebraska Senate Democrats signed an open letter to voters, affirming that the Democrats still have the ability to win more seats in the state parliament this year, thereby balancing the influence of the Republicans.

Paul Landow, former executive director of the Nebraska Democratic Party, called the argument against Cavanaugh “speculative.”

“There must be a lot of things happening at the same time for the ‘blue dot’ to really be in danger,” Mr. Landow said.

However, for many Democratic voters, this fear is completely valid.

In 2024, Mr. Trump and his allies pressed Nebraska to change its electoral law to avoid a scenario where the Democratic candidate won one electoral vote from NE-2. The Republicans at that time did not have enough votes to pass the bill, but the controversy showed that the “blue dot” had become a national political goal.

Outside a polling station in Omaha on May 12, voter Beth Pepitone said she voted for Powell because she wanted someone ready to confront President Trump.

“I think we’re going in the wrong direction and it’s very sad,” Ms. Pepitone said AP. “I want to protect the ‘blue dot'”.