After an extraordinary wheat campaign, a sharp drop of more than 20% in production is expected

The entity projected a slight drop in 3% in the planted area wheat until 6.5 million hectaresalthough Production would have a decline of 23.4% to 21.3 million tons. In this sense, the volume would suffer such a decrease since the basis of comparison is the previous campaign, where an extraordinary productive record of 28 million tons was recorded.

As for the barleythere would be a expansion of the area to 1.35 million hectares, while production would decline by 2.8% to 5.25 million tons.

Thus, the total area sown with winter cereals would fall to 7.85 million hectares and 26.55 million tons.

As a consequence of the expected drop in production, the economic aspects of the new fine campaign also show declining values.

The value of production would fall 11% to US$6,356 million; added value, -19% to US$ 4,015 million; tax collection, -10% to US$ 1,099 million; and exports, -2% to US$ 4,603 million.

In dialogue with Clarín Ruralthe general manager of the BdeC, Ramiro Costaexplained that, despite the low “It is a great success, the third largest in history, but on the other hand it is 20% smaller than the previous year”.

“What we are seeing is that it is a campaign that begins in a complicated contextin global terms. International grain prices are relatively low, input costs have risen sharply, and producer margins are tight. So what we see is that, on the one hand, a drop in the planted area of ​​3%, but a more significant decrease in the levels of technology that will be applied,” Costa noted.

Along these lines, he projected that “Expected returns are slightly below previous yearand that impacts production. It is also true that in recent weeks prices have been increasing, which is why the situation is improving, and economic numbers are falling less than production is falling. That is, the price effect partially offsets the effect of the fall in quantities.”

That is why Costa considered that “if price opportunities appear, I am sure the producer will take advantage of it, because today the numbers are finite, but quite improvable, with little cost reduction, with some price increase, he can already give the appropriate signal for more technology to be used.”