So far, so good. While the war in Iran and the international energy crisis have been underway for more than two months now, the fear of a general surge in prices on the shelves of our supermarkets has not yet materialized. Of course, fuel is soaring — in April, energy prices jumped another 14.3% year-on-year according to INSEE. But, still according to this organization, food prices have slowed, going from +1.8% in March to +1.2% last month.
“We must see in particular the effect of the annual price negotiations between manufacturers and distributors, which ended at the end of February and which recorded reductions on products that were previously on the rise, such as chocolate or coffee,” explains Emily Mayer, director of studies at the Circana Institute. Quietly, however, all the mechanisms for a possible surge in inflation are currently being put in place. “It’s this summer that everything will play out, and that we will probably see the consequences of this crisis,” continues the expert.
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