Xi Jinping with Kim Jong-un: Why China is losing influence in North Korea

What followed was only seen by the world public through the lens of the Chinese state agency Xinhua: China’s President Xi Jinping descended the stairs of his presidential jumbo jet. Downstairs, on the red carpet, North Korea’s dictator was waiting Kim Jong-un with his wife Ri Sol-ju and extends his hand to Xi – “warmly”, as Xinhua emphasizes.

The fact that the warmth between the two communist leaders is so highlighted is the real story of this visit. After all, it was the first time in seven years that Xi set foot on North Korean soil. Despite the ideological closeness, the relationship between the two countries has recently cooled.

North Korea’s proximity to Russia is a problem for China

This is mainly because Kim has become stronger in recent years Russia has turned towards. Since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, North Korea has supplied ammunition, artillery shells and sent up to 15,000 soldiers to the front.

In return, Russia supplied satellite technology, energy, food and medicine. Above all, the two nuclear powers signed an “Partnership agreement“, which also includes a support clause in the event of an attack. This means that North Korea has two formal allies for the first time – and China lost its special status.

For decades, the Middle Kingdom was North Korea’s sole protective power and often tried to use this position to exert influence on the much smaller military dictatorship. This “Treaty of friendship, cooperation and mutual assistance” of 1961 is celebrating its 65th anniversary this year. The anniversary is the official reason for Xi’s visit, which hopes to bind Kim closer to himself again in order to be able to better control the partner state, which is particularly erratic militarily.

But the Kim family has long since perfected this game: Even during the break between China and the Soviet Union in the 1960s, when both were fighting for supremacy in Asia, North Korea played the rivalry between the two against each other, purchasing Russian weapons and Chinese food without committing to either side.

Kim doesn’t allow himself to be dictated to in his nuclear program

Kim Jong-un is also proving difficult to control, especially with regard to his nuclear program. Last week he unveiled a new nuclear facility and called for an “exponential” buildup. Kim Yo-jong, his influential sister, called North Korea’s nuclear status an “irreversible reality.”

The export nation China primarily wants stability in its immediate neighborhood; North Korea’s missile tests and nuclear threats have the opposite effect. Beijing and Pyongyang are no longer united on this issue: When Xi and Kim met in Beijing last year, the subsequent communiqué for the first time lacked a commitment to nuclear disarmament. According to Chinese reports, the topic will still be discussed again this time.

As well as Japan. Since the Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi a possible Chinese invasion of the island Taiwan described in the fall as “threatening the existence” of their country – which was generally seen as a commitment to defending the island – the relationship with China is severely strained. If North Korea’s government also publicly condemned Takaichi’s change of course, it would be a strong signal of solidarity with Beijing.

There will probably be nothing more than signals from this meeting anyway, but that should be fine by both those in power. Xi needs the relationship to be staged because the substance of it has recently slipped away to some extent. Kim, in turn, shows that his rapprochement with Russia was important: After all, Xi, the more powerful of the two, came to Pyongyang on his first trip abroad this year to meet the junior partner instead of holding court in Beijing as usual. And the whole world saw it.