Study: Electricity shortage threatens Finland already in the early 2030s

Sufficient electricity may be tested in Finland as early as the 2030s, according to a recent study by Aalto University.

The rapid increase in the number of electric cars and consumption spikes caused by car charging may challenge the sufficiency of electricity in the near future.

Based on the research, an energy shortage may threaten as early as the beginning of the 2030s. The sufficiency of electricity is tested especially in the cold weather of the beginning of winter, when demand is at its highest and wind power production is often low.

Doctoral researcher in energy engineering Ilona Malmipuro Aalto University commented that Finland’s electricity production is not necessarily enough to meet the rapidly growing demand.

“According to our forecast, already at the beginning of the next decade, Finland’s electricity production will have a significant shortfall during low-wind winters. The production capacity may not be sufficient to meet the rapidly growing number of electric vehicles and the consumption spikes caused by their charging.”

The number of electric cars is increasing

Finland is one of the leading countries in Europe in the electrification of transport. There are currently around 300,000 chargeable electric cars in Finland, and according to the researchers’ estimate, the number will at least double, but may even triple within four years.

When there are a lot of cars, especially the timing of charging has a significant impact on electricity consumption, says Malmipuro.

“Electric car owners typically charge their cars in the afternoon and early evening. Electricity consumption in Finland is at its highest in the mornings and afternoons anyway. If car charging were instead scheduled during the hours of cheap electricity prices around the clock, the consumption would be more evenly distributed,” he states.

Finland and other Northern European countries are currently rapidly electrifying not only transport, but also industrial production and their heating systems. The total demand for electricity in Finland has been predicted to grow by 20–45 percent by 2030.