Climate crisis: EU transport infrastructures cannot withstand extreme events

These extreme weather events can not only damage infrastructure, but also cause delays, line closures and prolonged interruptions of freight and passenger transport. These problems undermine economic activity, supply chains and public health.

Climate models predict an increase in the frequency of heat waves in the future. The authors of the study established that, in a scenario consistent with current climate policies and predicting global warming of around 3 degrees by 2100, the exposure of European transport infrastructure to extreme heat could be up to thirty times greater by mid-century compared to the period between 1980 and 2009.

Also inland navigation is seriously threatened by drought increasingly frequent, which will lower levels in waterways. “Disruptions to road and rail networks due to forest fires could be up to 26 times more frequent,” adds Wim Thierry. “Flood exposure could increase eightfold locally.”

According to the study, transportation infrastructure and the populations of the Mediterranean region will be the most affected in the coming decades. This region is expected to face a fort increase in both heat waves and forest fires. Researchers estimate that 19% of Europe’s transport networks could be exposed to forest fires by 2050.

The consequences of these climate change effects can have a considerable impact on the economy, logistics and trade in Europe. There Germaniafor example, suffered economic damage estimated at €2.4 billion during the 2018 drought, which brought the Rhine River to an all-time low, thus disrupting river transport, as noted by Vub.

The study compares different climate scenarios. For example, taking into account optimistic projections that include a decrease in greenhouse gas emissions and warming of around 2 degrees Celsius by 2100, exposure to extreme weather events increases significantly less than under a scenario that takes into account current climate policies.

In this scenario, emissions would be reduced by between 22 and 30% compared to the high emissions scenario. “The benefits of reducing emissions are particularly evident in the food and beverage sectors heat waves, droughts and forest fires“, continues Thierry. “The elimination of greenhouse gas emissions, especially those resulting from the combustion of fossil fuels, will considerably reduce the future exposure of European transport infrastructure to extreme weather events.”

“It is urgent to act to prepare European transport systems for climate change,” adds Cristina Deidda, lead author of the study and researcher at Vub. “A better prepared and more resilient Europe needs transport networks adapted to extreme weather events”.