The contingency plan in Europe for a scenario in which the US leaves NATO

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The “Wall Street Journal” defined the current initiative as a “backup plan” in case the US announces a future withdrawal from the military alliance, which includes 32 member states, but relies mainly on the power of the US military to deter any factor against attacks on Europe called Article 5. This article allows for collective defense in the event of a war against one of the organization’s members. The US nuclear umbrella, along with global intelligence and monitoring capabilities Hers, it says, are irreplaceable in the current state of affairs.

But against the background of the fronts opened against the US under Trump, as well as reports from the last few weeks according to which the Americans will consider evacuating American bases from Germany and Spain against the background of their opposition to the war with Iran, NATO is preparing plans for “taking greater responsibility for Europe” within the military alliance. This is the beginning of a long-term process, and not an initiative that will be carried out in the coming months. The plan includes the allocation of larger forces from the national armies for NATO training, as well as the staffing of the organization’s command avenue with commanders from European countries.

“The goal is to maintain deterrence vis-a-vis Russia, and to maintain ongoing operational capability as well as nuclear reliability, even if Washington withdraws forces from Europe or refuses to help defend it,” the Wall Street Journal report states. Recently, Germany signed a security agreement with France for “cooperation on nuclear deterrence”, in what appears to be a first step to deal with an international situation in which the US is no longer a guarantor of Germany’s security. As of today, there are nuclear bombs in the American air force bases in Germany. France and Great Britain, the allies, have a limited number of atomic weapons.

Berlin, which until now relied on the US and refused to allow greater security independence in Europe for NATO as demanded by France, is slowly changing direction. After its foreign minister declared that the US war with Iran “is not our war”, relations between Germany and the US cooled. According to the Wall Street Journal, Chancellor Friedrich Mertz ordered the change of direction after meetings with Trump, who ultimately assessed that there was a chance that the American president would not be a reliable partner within the alliance.

Europe is facing challenges

Those who are leading the move, NATO Secretary General Rota and Finnish President Alexander Stove, actually hope that it will “prove” to Trump that Europe meets the challenges required of it, and takes from the US a significant share of the responsibility in the name of its independence and sovereignty. The two, with German backing, are pushing for a reform within NATO that will use the existing defense framework. This is in contrast to the direction the French have pushed so far – to consider a European alternative to NATO. In practice, this could mean protecting the continent through European air defense systems (even if some of them will be purchased from the US and Israel), increasing monitoring and surveillance capabilities from space using satellites, anti-submarine defense systems, and more. According to the newspaper, Germany and Britain’s announcement of joint development of hypersonic ballistic missiles and cruise missiles is part of the new direction.

But the European move also requires power arrangements that do not currently exist on the continent, and a transition to armies that include mandatory conscription. So far, some of the goals set for European armies in the event of an all-out conflict with Russia have mainly been to delay the forces until the US has flowed ground forces to the continent. A “more European NATO” will have to deal with an invasion on its own, among other things by increasing the armies on the continent through conscription.

The day after the war

In the meantime, some of the US’s NATO allies are trying to help resolve the situation in Iran by forming a coalition to secure navigation in the Persian Gulf after the war. Britain and France will enter an online summit of dozens of countries, the third so far, designed to deal with the need to keep the Strait of Hormuz free after the war (both refused the US’s request for aid in the war). Among other things, the plans include the use of British ships to remove mines and French warships to escort commercial shipping, but this will be done when there is no risk of renewed fighting.