An economist close to Milei improves his forecasts and sees “an expansion horizon” in a key variable for the Government

Arriazu revealed that the current indicators far exceed his own initial estimates. As detailed, his previous projections contemplated a trade surplus of US$ 13.5 billion, a figure that already improved the performance of the previous year, but the recent behavior of the trade balance in the last 12 months forced him to recalculate his models towards a much more optimistic scenario.

The economist placed the trade surplus “around US$20 billion”, accompanied by a positive balance in the current account. Based on these numbers, he estimated a base growth for the economy “of 3.5% for this year”, clarifying that the final variation will depend on the behavior of Argentines regarding the purchase of dollars.

The analyst emphasized that “the key to success at this stage lies in achieving a genuine improvement in the real economy” and predicted a horizon of strong expansion for the medium term, projecting that by 2030 exports linked exclusively to the energy sector will exceed US$30 billion. After ensuring that the planets aligned to offer the country a fabulous opportunity, Arriazu qualified his optimism with a historical warning by remembering that “Argentina has already wasted similar windows of opportunity in the past, expressing his desire that this time the trend will be reversed.”

The viability of this expansionary process and the arrival of the necessary investments to support it were at the center of the debate among specialists, who agreed on the urgency of moving towards a profound tax reform. From the technical and official perspective, officials from the Ministry of Economy presented the guidelines on which the Government works to reduce tax pressure, eliminate distortions and guarantee the predictability that companies demand.

The Undersecretary of Public Revenue of the Nation, Claudia Balestrini, stressed that the central objective is to design a tax system that does not interfere with investment decisions or condition the profitability of businesses for tax reasons. The official praised the drastic reduction that has already been implemented in export and import duties and anticipated that the fundamental reform will seek to reverse inequalities instead of granting particular exemptions. As specified, the official plan contemplates reducing tax pressure and gradually eliminating the most distorting taxes, always maintaining the commitment to fiscal balance and the care of public resources.

In turn, the National Director of Taxes, Juan José Imirizaldu, addressed the need to provide legal security through international insertion. The official highlighted the parliamentary approval of the agreements to avoid double taxation with China, Turkey and Austria, and announced that similar agreements are being negotiated with the United States, India, Uruguay and the Czech Republic. Likewise, he valued the legislative ratification of the Multilateral Instrument (MLI), a tool that standardizes current treaties under international transparency parameters and prevents abuses, offering a key predictability framework for investment flows.

Despite the consensus on the desired direction, private sector experts warned about the complex structural challenges that still persist in the Argentine fiscal framework. Fernando Quiroga Lafargue, Tax & Legal partner at KPMG Argentina, provided data from the firm’s latest annual survey carried out on tax representatives of large and medium-sized companies, warning that the Gross Income tax is consolidated as the main factor in increasing the prices of goods and services. The specialist revealed that the incidence of this tax jumped from 54% recorded last year to more than 60% in the current measurement, concluding that any attempt at tax reform focused on productivity and development will be doomed to failure if the readjustment of this provincial tax and the mitigation of the strong overlap of local collection regimes is not decisively addressed.