Trump is preparing for his 80th birthday, and no war will stop him

Unlike previous rounds, in which US President Donald Trump was not afraid to use threatening language against Iran, on Monday morning, the president took a more conciliatory approach, tweeting “Israel and Iran must stop firing immediately.”

In addition to the conciliatory tone in the tweet, Trump told the Axios news site that he was “going to call Bibi and tell him not to retaliate. Israel has attacked and Iran has attacked, we don’t need another attack.”

Trump’s expressions of peace represent a change of approach to the usual way he speaks and behaves online, but behind it is a fairly simple explanation: the escalation in the Middle East comes at a time that conflicts with several celebrations in the US.

Who has a birthday?

First, this Thursday the World Cup tournament will begin, with 104 matches between 48 national teams, which will take place across 16 stadiums, the expected revenue for FIFA from the event is estimated at more than 9 billion dollars, according to the Guardian newspaper.

To the question to what extent is the sporting event a factor in Trump’s considerations?, Ruthie Pins-Feldman, a senior fellow at the Meshgav Institute and a doctoral student at Tel Aviv University, who studies the USA, says that “in the USA, the upcoming World Cup is seen as much more than a sporting event; it is seen as a critical test of the Trump administration’s ability to project strength and stability. Trump is very interested in the World Cup going smoothly, presenting the USA at its peak And it will prevent damage to the economy or a spike in oil prices just before the arrival of many tourists.”

The Iranian national team is expected to participate in the games

“The Iranian team’s games will be held in Los Angeles, the city where the world’s largest diaspora Iranian community is located, which is identified by the vast majority as anti-regime, and which creates a heavy fear of huge political demonstrations outside and inside the stadium. It is clear that Trump would prefer that the games be held under the guise of negotiations and not war.”

Prof. Eitan Gilboa, an expert on the USA from the School of Communication at Bar-Ilan University and a senior researcher at the Begin-Sadat Center (BSA) for strategic studies is convinced that “three days before the opening of the World Cup, Trump is not interested in a new round of intense and long war that the USA will be dragged into”.

But the celebrations in the USA do not end with the final match of the World Cup on July 19. In June, there will be two big celebrations in the country: on June 14, Trump will celebrate his 80th birthday, and on July 4, the 250th anniversary of the country will be celebrated in the USA.

The 250 celebrations in the US are divided between two organizations: The America250 organization was established about a decade ago by the American Congress, budgeted and designed to hold Independence Day celebrations without political affiliation. On the other hand, the Freedom250 organization was established by the Trump administration a few months ago and is expected to start the Independence Day celebrations already on Trump’s birthday. As part of the Freedom celebrations, a boxing match is expected to take place on Trump’s birthday in the garden of the house White, for whom a boxing cage was specially built, and the entire event is expected to cost billions of taxes.

It seems that the celebrations play a large part in Trump’s desire to lower the intensity of fire between Iran and Israel. Prof. Gilboa says that “June is a month of celebrations in the USA: it has the World Cup, President Trump’s 80th birthday on June 14 and the 250th birthday of the USA on July 4. Trump does not want a massive war with Iran during this entire period and will make efforts to bring about a ceasefire.”

Congressional restrictions

On the other hand, last week a law was passed designed to moderate Trump’s decisions. Congress voted in favor of a War Powers Resolution against the president, sending a clear message to the current administration – that the war cannot be continued indefinitely.

“The issue mainly raises difficulties in the negotiations, in that it signals to Iran that Trump has a lot of opposition at home and weakens his position that if a good agreement is not signed, the US will return to fighting,” says Pins-Feldman.

“However,” she continues, “it does not appear that this is what is behind Trump’s desire to push for a memorandum of understanding or an agreement with Iran. He has various legal tools at his disposal to deal with this limitation – it is actually possible that the current move in which Israel is the one operating militarily, and the US is not an active partner from an offensive point of view, is part of his strategy.”

The duty to maintain the image

Finns-Feldman believes that “Trump may leverage the situation to force Iran to return to the negotiating table under conditions favorable to the US. The apparent strategy is a combination of an Israeli military attack, at the same time as offering a diplomatic channel on the part of the US for a ceasefire.”

How will the negotiations be affected?

Prof. Gilboa explains that “paradoxically, the exchange of fire can improve the American position in the negotiations with Iran, because for several weeks the Revolutionary Guards have been conducting a rigid policy of postponements and deceptions.”

Elam adds that “the Iranians recognize the plight and the American reluctance to be dragged into a broad escalation, and are therefore exerting heavy pressure. It actually started already about a week ago with attacks and operations against American targets, along with messages also sent to Kuwait and Bahrain.”

According to him, “Tehran’s main concern concerns Lebanon. The significant turnaround led by the Lebanese government causes them real concern, because they fear losing their most important proxy in the region. For them, any damage to Hezbollah’s status is a direct damage to Iranian influence and the deterrence capability they have built up over the years. That is why they are acting as they are acting now, in an attempt to exert pressure, create levers of influence and improve positions for the next phase.

On the other hand, Finns-Feldman mentions that Trump also “must show the countries of the region and the US’s allies that it will protect them in times of need, that they should join it. He cannot afford damage to the image of the US as a world power and of himself in front of his enemies, allies and voters. He also understands that Iran is conducting negotiations designed to delay time. Therefore, it is reasonable that alongside the harsh rhetoric we are now hearing from him to stop the campaign, behind the scenes there is backing.”