La Jornada: With the T-MEC, Mexico gained greater relevance in US trade

Since the Agreement between Mexico, the United States and Canada (USMCA) replaced NAFTA in 2020, Mexico’s participation in the northern power’s total trade has grown steadily, while that of Canada and China has fallen.

Data from the Census Bureau of the US Department of Commerce show that in 2019, the year before the agreement came into force, Mexico represented 14.8 percent of that country’s trade. For the first four months of 2026, that proportion stands at 16.4 percent.

In that same period, Canada went from representing 14.4 to 12.4 percent of US trade, affected in part by the tariff frictions it has had with Washington since the start of Donald Trump’s administration.

China had an even more pronounced reduction: from 13.5 percent in 2019 to 6.1 in the first four months of 2026, hit by the tariffs of up to 21.6 percent that the United States currently applies to it, the highest among its main trading partners.

The reconfiguration of the US trade map occurs in the midst of a formal review process of the T-MEC, agreed for next July 1. However, the timing of the renegotiation makes that date practically unfeasible. The first formal round between Mexico and the United States took place a few weeks ago, a second is scheduled for next week in Washington and a third for the week of July 20 in Mexico City.

Furthermore, last Wednesday, the President of the United States, Donald Trump, indicated from the White House that he is considering not renewing the treaty with his northern partners. “After six years it is being presented for renewal. I don’t know if I’m going to renew it because, to be honest with you, the United States is doing much better,” he declared.

He added that Washington does not need what Mexico or Canada offer, although both countries do depend on what their economy produces.

A different story

The numbers, however, tell a different story. From January to April 2026, trade between Mexico and the United States totaled 317.3 billion dollars. Mexico remains the main partner of that country, both in exports and imports.

In the accumulated amount of the year, US purchases from Mexico amount to 188,723 million dollars, a historical maximum for that period, and represent 16.9 percent of all imports made by the United States on a global scale.

Since 2016, Mexico is the third country that has gained the most share in US imports with an increase of 3.03 percentage points, below Taiwan, which tops that list with 6.41 points, and Vietnam, with 4.95. In contrast, China accumulates the largest loss in participation in that period, with a drop of 12 percentage points. If the trend continues, China would close 2026 in fifth place among suppliers to the United States, something that has not happened since 1992.

Since February 2025, Trump imposed levies under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which in February of this year were declared unconstitutional by the Supreme Court. In addition, there are sectoral tariffs of 25 percent on vehicles and auto parts, from 25 to 50 percent on steel and aluminum, 50 percent on copper and 17.09 percent on tomatoes.

Despite this environment, in April the effective tariff charged to Mexico was only 3.59 percent, the twenty-seventh lowest among the 35 main trading partners of the United States. The reason is the high compliance with the T-MEC, given that 87.2 percent of imports from Mexico in April entered with the support of the treaty.