“Great solidity”: the Argentine corn market no longer looks to Chicago and the cereal is paid US$ 10 above the North American market

Although local values ​​tend to be decoupled from those exhibited in Chicago and do not strictly copy what happens in said stock market, these situations occurred more due to productive issues in Argentina and the impact of withholdings on prices. This meant that, normally, prices in our country were below the international reference rates.

But that changed and, despite a record harvest in full swing, A higher value is paid to Argentine producers than to North American ones. “Since the beginning of the commercial cycle, cereal has exhibited great solidity in the local market, whose ton is trading at the same price levels at which contracts are operated in Chicago,” says a report from the Córdoba Grain Exchange (Bccba).

As the Bccba analyst explained to Clarín Rural, Agustín Vicari, The United States is coming off a record corn harvest and the one that has just been planted would be the second largest in history, an issue that is influencing the harvest contracts (September/December) of the northern country.

As for Argentina, the analyst highlighted that “the local market is strong: the available market is paying US$175 per ton. That is, it is a little above what the harvest is being negotiated in Chicago, despite being threshed at the moment in Argentina. This is no small fact considering that there are no export duties there.”.

For her part, the market analyst and financial advisor, Mariela Brandolinindicated that “Local shale is worth US$180 per ton, and Chicago does not reach US$170. You are paying US$10 more here”.

Brandolin explained that this disparity “It is not a topic for now”but “Local corn has been disarbitrated against Chicago for a couple of years.”: It began with the leafhopper event in 2024, which caused a sharp reduction in production, and then the differential was maintained due to very firm internal demand due to good cattle prices, which is why we will hardly return to historical relations against Chicago”.

For the director of RIA Consultores, Javier Preciado Patiño“Argentine corn has been firm since the harvest started” and beyond the positive difference in the value of Argentine cereal, “what also draws attention is how low the commodity is in Chicago.”

“I understand that Chicago does not completely refer to what is happening in South America. But it is not understandable that they are so cheap, taking into account that there are a couple of months left until they begin their harvest,” said Preciado Patiño.

According to estimates from the Córdoba Stock Exchange, to date they have been marketed 30.9 million tons of the 68 million that are expected to be harvestedwhich represents 46% of national production.

Said advance would be positioned 3 percentage points above that observed during the previous cycle (43%) and 5 percentage points below the average of the last five campaigns (51%).

To date, around 23.3 million tons corresponding to the 2025/26 campaign are priced, 75% of the total marketed, which is in line with the level observed during the previous commercial cycle (77%). “In addition, this behavior is also repeated when analyzing the percentage with respect to total production and, to date, 34% of the harvest already has a price, while during the 2024/25 cycle said value was 32%,” said the Bccba.

Regarding the external market, At the end of June, DJVE was approved for 18.8 million tons of corn in grain since the beginning of the commercial cycle (starts in March and ends in February), positioning itself above the volume recorded during the previous campaign (17.8 million).

In this context, Exporters have purchased 27.7 million tons“with which aggressive purchases by these actors in the domestic market should not be expected, at least in the short term.”