Italian exports aim to exceed 690 billion in 2028

The data on Italian exports of goods give rise to hope. In fact, it is expected to increase by 2% at the end of 2026, and then accelerate to 2.5% in 2027, reaching 675 billion euros, and to 2.8% in 2028, when it will exceed 690 billion euros. All this emerges from SACE Export Report 2026 “RE-Agire: Italy faces the challenge of global exports”, now in its nineteenth edition.

This dynamic, explains the report, is made possible “in a scenario of gradual return to pre-conflict conditions in the Middle East and consistent with the path towards the objective of 700 billion in exportswhich will be achieved by continuing to support market diversification, development initiatives of Italian companies abroad and System support, in line with the new SACE50 Strategic Plan 2026-2028″. According to Guglielmo Picchi, President of SACE, the report “gives us a positive perspective, but above all the awareness that growth on international markets today requires a more proactive and coordinated approach”.

Solid and resilient export data

Michele Pignotti, CEO of SACE, observes that “Italian exports prove to be solid, but are called upon to compete with a more complex global competition than in the past. Geographical diversification, security and expansion of supply sources and integration into global value chains are the challenges that emerge from the Report, on which we work alongside companies with our SACE50 Strategic Plan. The objective is clear: we want to contribute to reaching 700 billion in exports and we will achieve it together with all System actors.”

The most dynamic areas for Italian exports

From the report, it follows that theAsia-Pacific confirms itself as one of the most dynamic areas for Italian exports, with sales of 60.3 billion euros in 2025 and expected growth of 3.5% in 2026 and an average of 3.4% per year in the two-year period 2027-28, supported by investments in innovation, green transition, sustainable infrastructures and new supply chains. The Middle East, after a contraction expected in 2026 linked to the crisis in the Gulf area, is expected to return to growth decisively in the following two years, with an average increase of 5.3%. In Latin America, sales are expected to increase by 2% in 2026 and by 3.1% on average per year in 2027-28, fueled by energy projects and the reorganization of value chains. Africa, also thanks to Mattei Plan of the Presidency of the Council of Ministers, presents development space for machinery, technologies and intermediate goods: exports to the 18 priority countries of the Plan are worth 14.4 billion euros, up 4.1% compared to 2024.

Europe and North America

Finally, in the more traditional markets, advanced Europe remains the main destination basin, with 346 billion euros of exports in 2025 and an expected growth of 2.5% in 2026, while Central Eastern Europe shows growth profiles significantly above the average in the entire three-year period; North America also offers positive prospects, with an expected increase of 1.9% in 2026 and an average of 3.2% per year in the following two years.

16 strategic countries for Italy

In this context, the SACE Report identifies 16 strategic countries – China, Turkey, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Mexico, South Korea, Brazil, India, Singapore, Morocco, Egypt, Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam, Kazakhstan and the Philippines – which offer an intelligent diversification platform, integrating already covered markets with more dynamic geographies. Forecasts indicate growth of an average of 4.4% for these destinations in 2027-2028, higher than that of overall exports, reaching 92 billion euros.

Critical raw materials and global value chains

A further factor analyzed concerns the critical raw materialsessential for the digital and energy transitions and characterized by a strong geographical concentration of the offer. Around 16% of global trade in these materials is subject to restrictions, with potential effects on price volatility and continuity of supplies. For a manufacturing country like Italy, heavily dependent on the import of strategic production inputs, security of supply becomes an integral part of the export strategy. Finally, the Report highlights the role of global value chains as a point of synthesis between exports and imports and as a fundamental lever to accompany the Italian production system in this phase of transformation. Today approximately 41% of Italian manufacturing production is activated, directly or indirectly, by international production processes. Italian supply chains represent more than half of the national turnover and show a propensity to export significantly higher than the average of the Italian economy: around 32% versus around 15%. Energy, Agri-Food and Packaging, Automotive, Chemicals and Pharmaceuticals, Electronics and Mechatronics, Machines and Plants are among the areas in which integration into global chains can strengthen the competitive positioning of Italian companies.