The rise in memory chip prices shows signs of cooling down

The latest market report from research company TrendForce shows that regular memory chip contract prices are expected to increase by 13-18%, while NAND flash memory chip prices are expected to increase by 10-15% in the third quarter of 2026 compared to the previous quarter. Although still increasing, this rate is much lower than the record increase of 60% in the second quarter of 2026.

According to TrendForce experts, the cooling does not come from improved chip supply, but because manufacturers of consumer electronics such as PCs and smartphones are no longer able or refuse to pay more when buying components after many months of continuous price increases. In other words, the shortage of memory chips continues, but the consumer market has reached its price “tolerance” ceiling.

Artificial intelligence is still the core factor driving the semiconductor market. Huge demand from AI inference systems and large-scale data centers is continuously draining supply. To optimize profits, memory chip manufacturers still prioritize production lines for memory chips serving high-end server products. This unintentionally stifles output for the personal device segment, making it impossible for PC and smartphone memory chip prices to decrease, even when the purchasing power of this market is weakening.

Theo Tom’s Hardwarethe above reality creates a clear differentiation in the industry. In the enterprise segment, the demand for installing AI servers using x86 chips and RDIMM memory sticks remains high. Although the shortage of server memory chips is expected to last until the third quarter of 2026, price increases have been somewhat restrained thanks to long-term supply contracts previously signed between technology giants.

In contrast, the consumer equipment segment is facing great pressure. Laptop companies are trying to fill warehouses, but expensive component costs are starting to show up in retail prices, directly threatening factory output in the last months of the year. Similarly, smartphone manufacturers also have to increase phone prices to offset the cost of memory chips, while at the same time shrinking the scale of production due to concerns about consumers tightening their spending.

A similar scenario is happening with storage products, such as SSD hard drives. After accumulating a large amount of hard drives in the first half of 2026, PC manufacturers began to stop hoarding ahead of further supplier price increases. This forces semiconductor units to make concessions and offer softer prices in recent contract negotiations to maintain sales.

In other market niches, graphics cards have not created the expected sales boost because Nvidia’s Blackwell RTX PRO 6000 chip has not created a wave of widespread GDDR7 memory upgrades. Meanwhile, popular retail storage devices such as USBs or memory cards are in the doldrums due to eroded profit margins, making it difficult for dealers to continue passing on this expensive cost to the end user.

Analysts say that for users who need to assemble computers, a sharp price drop in the short term is unlikely because semiconductor manufacturers still give top priority to AI infrastructure. However, the slowdown in price increases shows that the market is gradually self-regulating as consumers’ financial endurance reaches its limit.