“The fear that Putin will become desperate”: the European island is preparing for an invasion

The Swedish island of Gotland, which is considered one of the most important strategic points in the Baltic Sea, is being prepared for the possibility of a future conflict with Russia. In a report published yesterday (Sunday), the British newspaper The Guardian describes how Sweden is increasing its forces on the island, expanding the mandatory service and also preparing the residents for emergency scenarios.

The article tells the story of Ella Edman, 19 years old from the island, who just four months ago graduated from school and has never owned a weapon. Today she is already on duty, carrying an assault rifle and preparing for her first mission. She is one of hundreds of young people sent to Gotland as part of the Swedish preparation for a military conflict with Russia.

During the Cold War, about 25 thousand soldiers were stationed in Gotland, and in 2005 the last base on the island was closed. Since 2018, and even more so since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Sweden has been re-strengthening its military presence there. After the country joined NATO, the island also became a permanent site for North Atlantic Treaty Organization exercises.

Gotland is considered a key point in the Baltic Sea due to its location between Sweden and the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad. Military experts quoted in the report stated that control of the island makes it possible to influence maritime and air traffic in the region and protect the supply routes to the Baltic states.

The commander of the Swedish ground forces in Gotland, Colonel Andreas Gustafsson, emphasizes that at this stage there is no immediate threat of a Russian invasion, but such a scenario cannot be ruled out in the future. According to him, if a ceasefire is reached in Ukraine, Russia will be able to quickly move forces towards Finland and the Baltic states. “The fear is that Putin will become desperate,” he said. “The more pressure is put on Russia, the more desperate it may become.”

Along with the military preparations, the residents of Gotland are also preparing for emergency situations. According to the report, civil preparedness groups have been established across the island that map water, electricity and communication sources and plan how to deal with an erupting crisis, as part of a broad effort to strengthen civil resilience in the event of a future conflict.

The fear in Sweden joins a series of warnings recently heard in other NATO member countries, against the background of the possibility that Russia will try to expand the conflict beyond the borders of Ukraine or test the determination of the alliance.

Only at the end of the week it was reported on the Polish news website Onet that the United States sent warnings to Poland that Moscow might carry out a military provocation on its territory. The report claims that among the scenarios that were warned about in Warsaw, missile or drone attacks on critical infrastructure in Poland, and even a ground invasion – all of these are aimed at testing NATO’s resolve and exacerbating tensions in the region.