The blow for Starmer is also expected to be painful across England, where Labor could record its worst night in its history. Of the 136 local authorities up for election, Starmer’s party is expected to gain a majority in only 42, almost half of them in London. In the capital itself, a surge in the power of the Green Party will split the votes of the left, but Labor is expected to maintain its position as the largest faction and control 19 councils.
At the same time, the break-in of the “Reform” party marks a historic event. In the most optimistic scenario for her, Farage’s party will take control of no less than 69 local councils in England, half of the councils up for election this year, while drawing votes from disillusioned Labor voters in the industrial “red wall” areas of the north of the country, such as Sunderland and Barnsley, and from Conservative Party voters in the east.