The guerra contra USA e Israel has not only shaken the military front of Iranbut it is also altering the heart of its political system: After the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in a bombing, power is no longer concentrated in an undisputed clerical authority and has moved towards a core dominated by the military where the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps sets the strategic and political course.
According to a Reuters report based on interviews with Iranian officials and analysts, in practice, The war has caused key decisions to pass into the hands of a hard core composed of the Revolutionary Guard, the Supreme National Security Council and the office of the Supreme Leader. The Guard being the one that now dominates both military strategy and the most strategic political decisions. There is no longer a single arbitrator, which was the clerical power.
As a result, Iran experience a militarization of political power where the ideology and strategy of the Revolutionary Guard set the course.
The signs of this situation have been noted in the negotiations with the United States. Reuters stated that the diplomatic face of Iran is the foreign minister, Abbas Araqchiwhich was most recently joined by the Speaker of Parliament, Mohammed Baqer Qalibaf, former commander of the Revolutionary Guard, mayor of Tehran and presidential candidate. This is a key link between Iran’s political, security and clerical elites.
But on the ground, Reuters saidIslamic Revolutionary Guard commander Ahmad Vahidi is the key figure in the negotiations.
The chancellor maintains a visible role, but the real negotiating power is conditioned by the military.
The power acquired by the military makes the Iran’s foreign policy more rigid, since the moderate sectors have been displaced. The Revolutionary Guard prioritizes resistance and deterrence, which translates into less flexibility in negotiations with the United States.
An example is the latest proposal of Iran for the end of the war, where it does not offer concessions to the United States and seeks to end the conflict on Tehran’s terms.
The Islamic Republic has proposed stop hostilities as a first step, lift the blockade and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and postpone the nuclear issuewhich is the main point of clash with Washington. The idea is to address the latter only when the war is over.
The Revolutionary Guard gains weight, but without a structural break
The international analyst Carlos Novoa considers that the rise of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps responds more to a conjunctural dynamics of war than to a definitive structural change in the Iranian system.
Although the Islamic Republic has managed to resist the offensive of the United States and Israel – supported by factors such as its geography and its strategic control of the Strait of Hormuz—, Novoa warns that the country is “decimated” and without complete conventional military capabilities, which limits their real margin of action.
In this context, Novoa points out that the figure of Mojtaba Khamenei has more symbolic than effective weight. within a scheme where different currents of power coexist: one in favor of resisting without concessions and another more inclined to negotiate. This internal tension is reflected in the debate over whether or not to move towards an agreement with Washington, especially in the face of demands considered unacceptable by Tehran, such as negotiating its nuclear program from the beginning or reopening the Strait of Hormuz no strings attached.
For the analyst, Iranian foreign policy is today subordinated to two central objectives: preserve the regime and gain oxygen in the middle of the war. Although he rules out a collapse of the system, he does warn of economic wear and tear and internal questions that place the country in a delicate situation. Even so, emphasizes that there is no real space for an organized opposition.
On the internal level, Novoa maintains that increasing militarization has tightened political control and further restricted freedoms.
“In a martial situation there is no room for criticism,” states, describing a scenario in which the narrative of external aggression has reinforced internal cohesion. Along these lines, he considers that the attempts by Donald Trump and Israel to encourage protests have had no impact and, on the contrary, have contributed to consolidating the regime.
“Far from weakening it, the war has ended up strengthening the system in its ability to remain in power,” says Novoa, who warns that, at least in the short term, Iran is moving towards a more militarized model, but without yet altering the underlying structure of the regime.
The military fills the power vacuum
/ ABEDIN TAHERKENAREH
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The international analyst Francisco Belaunde Matossian agrees that the growing prominence of the Revolutionary Guard is a direct consequence of the warmore than a definitive structural change, although it warns that it may have lasting effects.
As he explains, the elimination of key figures from the political and religious apparatus – added to the weakness of the leadership after the death of Ali Khamenei and the limited operational capacity of his son – It has generated a power vacuum that is being filled by the strongest actor: the military establishment.
Belaunde points out that, although the “facade” of a religious leadership at the top is maintained, real power is shifting to the Revolutionary Guardin line with a scenario that had already been anticipated by analysts. This internal rebalancing is also reflected in the international position of Iranwhere tensions coexist between more moderate sectors—mainly civilians—and a harder line linked to the military, which bet on resisting and negotiating from a position of strength.
In that sense, he interprets the latest Iranian proposal – which proposes the end of hostilities, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and postponing the nuclear debate – as a sign that Tehran is perceived to be in a relatively favorable position within the conflict.
“It is a logic of resistance: see who can endure the most,” resume Belaunde. It highlights that Iran uses its ability to exert pressure on the global energy market as a strategic card against the United States.
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