An intelligence report reveals: Iran can survive the siege for at least 3 months

A confidential intelligence assessment by the CIA, which was passed on to members of Congress and government officials in the United States, states that Iran can survive the American naval blockade for three to four months before facing more serious economic difficulties, the Washington Post reported this evening (Thursday).

According to the report, which is based on four sources who provide details, the American intelligence assessment also refers to the military capabilities remaining in Tehran’s hands. An American source estimated that Iran still has about 75% of the stockpile of mobile launchers it had before the war, and about 70% of the missile reserves it had on the eve of the campaign.

According to the same source, the regime was also able to restore underground storage facilities, repair missiles that were damaged during the war and even complete the assembly of missiles that were in advanced stages of production when the fighting broke out.

The report contradicts the picture that Trump and administration officials are trying to present regarding the results of the war in Iran. Trump claimed this week that the Iranian missile system had been largely destroyed, saying that Tehran only had “18% or 19% of the capabilities it had before the war” left. However, according to the American intelligence assessment on which the report is based, Iran still possesses significant capabilities – both in the field of ballistic missiles and in the field of UAVs.

Three sources quoted in the document told the newspaper that Iran continues to maintain a significant launch capability even after the joint move by the United States and Israel. One of the sources stated that the window of time required for Iran to return to significant production of ballistic missiles has shortened.

The report also shows that another field that survived the war is Iran’s stock of UAVs. The American newspaper stated that it is precisely the UAVs that help Iran threaten shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz. An American official told the newspaper that “all it takes is one drone to hit a ship so that no insurance company will agree to insure oil tankers.”

The estimate in the United States is that Iran still possesses thousands of UAVs, some of which are manufactured in small facilities – which makes it difficult to fully strike this industry.

Despite this, the White House continues to present the naval blockade as a significant economic success. The White House spokeswoman claimed that Iran was losing about half a billion dollars a day due to the American blockade, and said that the Iranian regime was being financially suffocated. US Treasury Secretary Basant also claimed that the economic pressure is expected to cause lasting damage to Iran’s oil infrastructure.

However, according to the CIA’s assessment, Tehran is still able to cope with some of the economic damage. One of the sources said that Iran is storing some of its oil in tanks left empty due to the blockade, and at the same time is reducing the rate of oil flow in the fields to maintain their integrity. American officials also estimated that Iran might try to circumvent the blockade by smuggling oil by land routes and by rail to Central Asia.