Taiwan will be one of the key topics at this week’s summit between the Chinese president, Xi Jinpingand its American counterpart, Donald Trumpin which Beijing could pressure Washington to modify its official stance towards Islam or limiting the supply of weapons to Taipei.
Although he has not been as explicit as his predecessor, Joe Biden, in expressing his support for the island, Trump has shown few qualms about approving major arms sales to Taiwan, such as authorizing, last December, a package valued at $11.1 billion, the largest acquired by Taipei to date.
The arms shipment was left out of the last face-to-face summit between the two leaders, held last October in South Korea, but Xi raised the issue again in a telephone conversation with Trump in February, in which he urged the US president to “handle the arms transfer prudently.”
After that talk, the Trump Administration put another major arms sale to the island on hold to avoid tensions with Beijing before the summit, according to the Wall Street Journal, although last week the Taiwanese Parliament approved a special defense budget with an allocation of about $12.7 billion to finance upcoming purchases of American equipment.
The other relevant point of the meeting will be US policy towards Taiwan, an issue in which every nuance matters: Washington’s official position is that it opposes “unilateral changes” to the status quo and that any differences between both sides must be resolved peacefully and without coercion.
Any change in that vocabulary – whether expressing “opposition” to Taiwan independence, support for “reunification” or greater alignment with the Chinese position on the island’s status – could be interpreted as a gesture towards Beijing and compromise the US response to an eventual conflict.
Last week, the Secretary of State of the North American country, Marco Rubio, tried to lower China’s expectations in this area, by emphasizing that both powers are interested in ensuring that “no destabilizing event” occurs in that part of the world.
In the opinion of Michael Cunningham, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center, there is nothing that China can or will offer the United States right now that is “strategically significant enough” to convince Washington to introduce a “major change” in its policy toward Taiwan.
However, the analyst does see the possibility of “small but significant” rhetorical changes with respect to the historical position of the United States and believes that, if that happens, the White House will try to defend that its position remains “unaltered,” in line with what has been expressed by numerous American officials in recent months.
“However, Beijing will use any statement by Trump that it considers beneficial to its interests as a precedent that it will later try to demand from other world leaders and future American presidents (…). I think Trump will be aware of this and will try to avoid making those types of mistakes,” the expert predicts.
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