Russia expert Mangott: Dynamics in the Ukraine war are changing

The dynamics in the Ukraine war have changed. Just a few months ago, Russia seemed to be clearly superior militarily. The situation has now “changed significantly,” says the political scientist Gerhard Mangott in conversation with Armin Wolf in the ZiB2.

“Ukraine has changed the situation on the battlefield, especially with its drone technology,” explains Mangott. Especially in the so-called death zone between the front lines, “it is hardly possible for the Russian side to advance”.

Economically weakened

But even far behind the front, Ukraine was putting increasing pressure on Russia. “Ukraine has managed to develop medium-range drones,” says Mangott. This makes it possible, among other things, to destroy Russian ammunition depots.

Ukraine is now also using long-range drones to attack refineries, oil pipelines and other parts of the energy infrastructure. As a result, Ukraine has “significantly weakened Russia’s economic development,” says Mangott.

The effects can now also be felt in Russia itself. Not only among the population but also within the Russian elite. Behind the scenes you hear that you don’t know exactly “whether Putin even has a plan for how he wants to get out of this war – and victoriously,” says Mangott.

According to Mangott, if Russia wanted to, it could definitely escalate the war further. For example, with major attacks on civilian cities. “D”It is not to be expected that Russia has new additional weapon systems that it has not yet used.”

Message to the Russian people?

Mangott interprets Putin’s recent statement that the war is nearing its end primarily as a message to his own population. “He wants to give her hope that the war will soon be over,” says the political scientist.

Whether Russia is actually ready for serious negotiations remains an open question. Nevertheless, according to Mangott, Europe should not rule out talks. “The European Union does not forgive itself when it talks to Russia,” he emphasizes. Even if it then turns out that Russia is not willing to compromise.