Iran, Vaez (Crisis Group): “Escalation with Israel is a wake-up call for Trump”

According to Vaez, Iran’s decision to react after the Israeli raid on Hezbollah targets in the Lebanese capital demonstrates that Tehran has now made “its doctrine of connection between the various regional fronts” concrete. A choice that complicates American efforts to separate the nuclear dossier and relations with Iran from the tensions between Israel, Lebanon and Hezbollah.

However, the expert urges caution regarding interpretations according to which the attack on Beirut is proof that an agreement between the United States and Iran is now imminent. “Not necessarily,” he notes. In his opinion, the Israeli raid is not a decisive indicator on the state of the negotiations, but rather the demonstration of how difficult it is to isolate the dialogue between Washington and Tehran from regional dynamics.

The factors that can cause a new escalation, explains Vaez, remain largely external to the negotiating channel between the United States and Iran and concern above all Israel’s desire to maintain its freedom of action in Lebanon and Hezbollah’s refusal to retreat or lay down its weapons.

Furthermore, the Israeli political dimension weighs heavily in the expert’s analysis. “Israel needs a permanent war for Netanyahu to survive politically,” says Vaez, underlining how the Israeli prime minister’s choices must also be read in light of the difficulties he faces on the domestic political front.