The strategic value puts Kharg Island in Mr. Trump’s sights

“My priority has always been to occupy Kharg Island. That’s the option I want, but I don’t know whether America has the determination to do that or not,” President Donald Trump told reporters. Fox News on June 11, mentioning the island in the Persian Gulf that is considered Iran’s oil lifeline.

In a previous social media post, Mr. Trump announced that the US would occupy Kharg Island and control the Iranian oil and gas market in the near future, “like it did with Venezuela.”

This is not the first time the US President has mentioned the idea of ​​occupying Kharg Island in the conflict with Iran. He once dispatched thousands of marines to the area, ready for the scenario of landing on the island in the early stages of the conflict. The fact that Kharg Island has been mentioned many times by the US President shows its important role in strategic calculations from Washington.

Kharg Island is located in the Persian Gulf, about 25 km from the coast of Iran, more than 480 km from the Strait of Hormuz. The island is 6 km long and has an area of ​​about 20 km2, about 1/3 of the area of ​​bustling Manhattan district in New York City, USA.

When Iran’s oil industry boomed in the 1960s, the Iranian government under King Mohammad Reza Pahlavi developed Kharg into one of the world’s largest oil export ports, with help from American oil company Amoco. Iran at this stage is still a close partner with the West.

Kharg quickly became Iran’s largest oil export center thanks to its wharves reaching out to waters deep enough to receive super-large oil ships. Facilities on the island have the capacity to process 7 million barrels of oil per day and about 90% of Iran’s crude oil exports pass through this gateway.

For Iran, Kharg is considered a vital link, because the country’s economy depends significantly on energy exports. A 1984 US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) document described “facilities on Kharg Island as vital to Iran’s continued economic prosperity”.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), Iran has a number of oil export routes that do not pass through the Strait of Hormuz, such as the port of Jask on the Gulf of Oman. However, the operating capacities of these lines are limited and their ability to operate on a large scale is unclear.

Reuters Citing data from energy market analysis company Kpler in March, facilities on Kharg Island had a capacity to hold about 30 million barrels of oil.

“Therefore, controlling Kharg Island means cutting off financial resources for Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), thereby significantly affecting the military capabilities of this force,” said Mikey Kay, security analyst at BBC Security Brief.

Controlling Kharg Island also helps the US military have a springboard to launch operations into Iranian territory if necessary. In addition, Washington can use Kharg Island as a bargaining chip to force Tehran to open the Strait of Hormuz.

Although Kharg is considered a target of high strategic value, many analyzes show that occupying the island also poses significant risks for the United States. Some experts believe that the US military can land and occupy the island in a short time thanks to its military superiority, but the big challenge lies in maintaining control.

Joseph Votel, former commander of the US Central Command (CENTCOM), told TWZ that Washington needs about 800-1,000 soldiers to hold the island, but this force requires a complex logistics system to maintain operations. He emphasized that supply lines will become vulnerable targets and must be constantly protected.

Ryan Brobst and Cameron McMillan, experts at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) think tank, note that capturing Kharg may not help end the conflict as expected, but will cause Iran to expand the scope of its counterattack in the region.

According to two experts, US soldiers on the island will face the risk of being attacked by missiles and drones. If Iran’s attacks cause damage to US forces stationed on the island, Tehran could release related videos for propaganda purposes.

Meanwhile, CNN Citing well-informed sources, Iran has strengthened its defenses on Kharg Island to guard against the risk of attack, including deploying more soldiers and air defense systems. Tehran is said to have also placed many types of traps, such as mines against infantry and armor.

Iranian National Assembly Chairman Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf once warned that the country’s forces were “waiting for American soldiers” and would “rain fire” on any unit that tried to enter Iranian territory. An Iranian military official announced that maritime routes in the Red Sea would become targets if a landing occurred.

In the current conflict, the US twice launched airstrikes on Kharg Island between March and April 7, before Washington and Tehran reached a ceasefire. President Trump said at the time that the US had avoided attacking oil infrastructure on the island.

A US official said the White House believes that occupying Kharg Island will cause the IRGC to “collapse” and help end hostilities quickly, but is also cautious because of the potential consequences. Plans to take over the island were drawn up many months ago, then shelved because officials judged the campaign to be too risky.

President Trump on June 11 also withdrew the warnings he gave about increasing air strikes on Iran and taking control of Kharg Island, citing progress in negotiations. He announced that the content of the agreement had been “presented to the highest leadership level and approved” by the Iranian side.

“I will soon announce the time and location of the signing,” Mr. Trump said. Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei said Tehran “has not yet made a final decision on this agreement”.

Congressman Ebrahim Rezaei, spokesman for the Foreign Policy and National Security Committee of the Iranian parliament, expressed skepticism about Mr. Trump’s statement, saying this was a “smudging” tactic by the US President. Rezaei warned the US about the scenario of landing troops to attack Kharg Island, declaring “if you come, you will not be able to return alive”.